The Obama Headwind

Ronald Brownstein, writing for National Journal, about how much damage Obama has done, and likely will do, to Democrats.

A deeply unpopular outgoing president almost always ensures his party's defeat (Truman, Johnson, George W. Bush, and Woodrow Wilson in 1920).

That shouldn't be surprising. When voters want change, it's natural for them to look toward the out party to deliver it. That instinct makes disenchantment with Obama the greatest potential headwind facing Democrats in 2016.

Unless Obama in his final laps can answer doubts about his leadership and agenda, the 2016 Democratic nominee will again be running into the wind—and last week's Republican rout showed just how tough that can be.

It poses a fascinating dilemma for Hillary Clinton. If she runs promising four more years of Obama-style leadership she enfolds herself in his unpopularity. If, on the other hand, she distances herself from Obama she risks alienating the Democrats' most loyal voting bloc - African-Americans.