Rove Instructs Us

Karl Rove, aka "the architect," is famous for his fine-grained knowledge of the political ins and outs of our various state party organizations. In The Wall Street Journal, he describes how delegates will be chosen for the GOP convention.

"Professor" Rove delivers a lecturette on who gets delegates how, when, and from where.

What complicates the picture is the GOP’s rule requiring the 28 jurisdictions (states, territories and the District of Columbia) that vote before March 15 to award their delegates proportionally. The exception is South Carolina, whose winner-take-all primary was grandfathered in. Add in the eight states voting on or after March 15 that also award their delegates proportionally, and some 60% of the convention’s likely total of 2,470 will be allotted that way.

By mid-March the top three or four candidates may be separated by only a small number of delegates, giving the leader a plurality, not a majority. Then comes the Ides of March, when winner-take-all contests kick off. On March 15 five states and one territory, awarding 361 delegates, will vote. Of these, 292 will be winner-take-all.

Add to the above confusion, another 210 formally uncommitted delegates. The bottom line: for the first time in recent memory, we could go to the GOP convention unclear about who will be nominated.

If that occurs, the pundit class (including me) will be positively giddy with excitement. Just imagine the opportunities for horse trading among the delegations, even for single votes.