Future of the Euro

Go here in the London Review of Books to read an analysis of the special role Germany must play if the euro is to survive as Europe's currency. It is, particularly, a role the German taxpayer does not relish. For example:

The German economy is too big and too powerful for the health of its neighbours, unless European monetary policy is somehow ameliorated to help the smaller, weaker countries stay in step. Interest rates which, during the first decade of the euro’s existence, suited German manufacturers, caused toxic credit bubbles to grow in Greece and Ireland and Spain. The consequences of those credit bubbles could take another decade to unwind, ten years of hard times for the citizens of those countries, who will spend most of it sweating to earn the tax money to pay back the German banks whose lending fuelled their bubble.

The signs are that the German electorate is becoming steadily less eager to go along with it. (snip) If the German taxpayer manages, however grudgingly, to accept that it’s her duty to shoulder the burden, the euro will muddle through. But it won’t be pretty.

Quote of the Day

Larry J. Sabado, blogging for the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, about presidential politics in the year 2012:

President Obama famously ran on “hope and change” in 2008, and his problem in 2012 is that, so far on the economy, Americans have little hope and haven’t seen much change.

That is the money quote: "Americans have little hope and haven't seen much change." Ouch.

Maybe No Climate Change Yet

I just saw a lighthearted column in The Telegraph (U.K.) written by James Delingpole. His topic is the bankruptcy of the global warmists, and their desperate search for an explanation of there being no actual significant warming since 1995.

If for no other reason, you must visit the article in order to see an outrageously attractive picture of a polar bear cub standing in a snowy forest. I understand they grow up into great seal-killing, ocean-swimming predators, but small polar bear cubs are nearly as cute as pandas or kittens.

A Voice from the Past

I was reading Jay Nordlinger's most recent Impromptus column from Prague, about the Ronald Reagan centenary celebrations there, when three or four different times he mentions former California Senator and Governor Pete Wilson, who was in attendance.

Clearly Nordlinger was impressed by Pete Wilson, a name we rarely hear in the present tense today. Read what Nordlinger wrote in his National Review Online column about Wilson:

Impressive. In everything he does, he projects intelligence and decency. Would have made a good president, I believe. Would make one now. One could do worse, and is . . .

That was cute how Nordlinger turned praise for Wilson into a dig at Obama. I expect had Wilson been elected president his term(s) would have resembled that of Bush 41. Both were very experienced in government, neither was particularly an ideologue.

The Unfortunate Chicken

Jay Nordlinger writes an intermittent column for National Review Online called Impromptus. It is nothing earthshaking but totally pleasant to read, and often hails from a foreign location, like Oslo or most recently from Prague.

In this column Nordlinger comments on the ubiquity of Colonel Sanders, seeing his smiling face on signs in both Prague and Alexandria, Egypt. The DrsC could add locations all over: Japan, Hong Kong, London, Guam, Australia, etc.

It often feels like KFC is more worldwide than McDonald's, though Internet statistics suggest that may be incorrect. The firm claims outlets "in 109 countries and territories around the world."

Why so widely popular? With the exception of places that are entirely vegetarian, chicken is nobody's taboo, nobody's sacred animal, hardly anybody's pet, and less expensive than beef or pork.

Anyplace where any meat is eaten, chicken is on the menu. This has been a plus for KFC's international operations. Maybe a minus from the chickens' point of view.

Quote of the Day

Michael A. Walsh, writing for the New York Post, about Washington being in denial:

Forget the politicians. Their job is to get re-elected in perpetuity, not save the country. They do that by buying votes with other people's money.

Don't we all know politicians whose behavior is exactly as described?

Gloom and Doom

Terence P. Jeffrey of CNSNews.com, reporting on opinion polling data from the Gallup organization:

In no month of Obama’s presidency has belief that the economy is getting better exceeded 41 percent among American adults. (snip) In the most recent three day-period reported by Gallup -- July 1-July 3 -- only 31 percent of Americans said they believed the economy was getting better.

Obama's campaign managers can't be pleased with the direction of that trend line. Unlike at your local Baskin-Robbins, "double dip" is bad news in recessions.

Fireworks on the Fourth in the Falls

Once again the DrsC and a guest viewed the Fourth of July fireworks in Idaho Falls. We've done this on many occasions and never been disappointed. In case you've never heard of Idaho Falls, it is the northernmost of two smallish major cities in eastern Idaho, known to locals as "the Falls."

The reason for the amazing fireworks is a firm headquartered in Idaho Falls: Melaleuca. They pay for the fireworks, everybody in eastern Idaho and western Wyoming is invited, and a reasonable proportion of us come to see the show. The traffic jam when the show is over takes way longer to clear than the show itself.

Melaleuca says their fireworks show is "the largest west of the Mississippi River" and I have no reason to doubt that claim. It is a knockout - they throw more wonderful stuff in the sky without pause for over a half hour than I've ever seen anywhere.

Eighteen hours later and I'm still amazed at the richness of it all. They don't shoot one shell up at a time, they shoot somewhere between 3 and 6, or more and they just keep coming without stop. If you love fireworks, you owe yourself a Fourth in the Falls.

Political Humor Alert

First there was the Algore effect. When Al Gore visits a place to talk about global warming there is a cold snap or blizzard while he's there.

Rush Limbaugh finds humor in politics, particularly Democratic politics. He has announced the discovery of a similar new effect: the Obama effect.

The Obama effect occurs when the President stops by an industrial plant to make a speech or have a photo op, touting the company as an example of green jobs or growth. Within months the plant lays off many workers or goes completely out of business.

On his website, Rush lists several examples of the Obama effect in action with his sources in the MSM. Of course the MSM rarely connect the dots to show how this President has a doodoo touch.

A CEO might want to be wary of inviting POTUS to his plant, or find "inconvenient" a presidential offer to visit.

Unintended Consequences

Former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko is being investigated for corruption before, and during, her term as PM. See this Reuters article from Yahoo News for details.

I have no idea whether or not she is guilty, or indeed whether anyone in a position of power in the Ukraine is entirely innocent. That isn't the subject of this blogpost.

My point is one of which her story is an example. If a nation's electoral winners routinely prosecute former leaders, truly representative elective government is likely to vanish.

Who is willing to face possibly losing a real election if that outcome will be followed by exile or a (probably dishonest) prosecution and prison? Short answer: no sane person.

The result of such policies is the degeneration of elective government into sham elected government, where the opposition is allowed no access to the media, its candidates are harassed or barred from running, and the same president or PM is always reelected, as in Venezuela. That, or outright one party rule a la China or North Korea.

It is the reason the ICC indictments against Libya's Gaddafi are a problem. He cannot step down and remain in Libya without being tried by his own people, and cannot leave without being tried by the International Criminal Court in the Hague.

We have boxed Gaddafi into a corner where his only alternative is to stay in Tripoli and fight it out to the bloody end; an end where most of the blood shed won't be his. If the goal was to get him out of the country and stop the war, the indictments feel good but weren't smart.

'Greece' the Skids

Poor, hapless Greece may yet find a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of something that might have passed for a sort of victory. See this article in the Financial Times for details.

Getting private lenders - banks - to extend the terms of their loans, or even take a haircut on the principal owed is proving harder than anticipated. What happens when Greek banks can no longer function? We may yet see the meltdown of a somewhat modern state.

Quote of the Day

Robert Samuelson, writing for RealClearPolitics, about the the deficit and financing government programs like Medicare and Social Security:

A dilemma of democracy is the difficulty of making changes that, though essential for society's long-term well-being, are unpopular in the short-run.

No kidding....

Take Kids To The Parade

It may be real and it may be hokum, but take your children to the 4th of July parade today. It can't hurt and it may help if you'd like them to grow up as conservatives.

Two academics have done a study looking at weather and relating that to parade attendance and subsequent political orientation. Hmmm. I suspect Independence Day parade attendance has much more to do with parent's patriotism, associated with the right in recent decades.

It may even have to do with in which part of the country you live. Oh, well, even if the causality is bogus, the parade is still fun. My source is The Week, reported in Yahoo News.

Bad News for Economy

Martin Feldstein, an economist with serious academic and governmental experience, has bad news for us:

The near-term outlook for the US economy is weak at best. Fundamental policy changes will probably have to wait until after the presidential and congressional elections in November 2012.

Feldstein lays out his reasons for reaching this conclusion, in his column for Project Syndicate.

A Caveat

Texas has created more than 40% of all new jobs created in the U.S., since the recession technically ended in 2009. See this column in The Los Angeles Times, written by a liberal, who admits to choking on that statistic.

I agree with what Texas has done, making tort lawsuits more difficult and being a right to work state. On the other hand, I believe a caveat is in order. I'm not sure all states would have had Texas' results if they all followed Texas' policies.

Let's try a thought experiment. Imagine that all 50 states have, from the beginning, followed Texas pro-business policies completely. Then firms that have moved to Texas to take advantage of its favorable policies would have felt less need to do so.

I'm guessing the result would be that Texas would not have nearly half of the new jobs in the country, these jobs would be spread more thinly across the country. Perhaps what Texas has done is lure growing firms from the rest of the country.

My conclusion: before we elect Texas Governor Rick Perry president and put the entire country on the path Texas has taken, we should ask ourselves whether Texas policies cause net job growth or merely attract growing firms from elsewhere in the U.S. To the extent that it is the latter, and not the former, a national policy like that of Texas may produce less growth than we anticipate or seek.

Quote of the Day

Clarice Feldman, writing in American Thinker, about the state of the Obama presidency:

He may be the only person left in Washington who has not yet realized how inadequate he is to the tasks before him.

Her comparison of this presidency to Kipling's The Man Who Would be King is intriguing.

A Good Story

Are you ready for a heart-warming story? You could do much worse than this Associated Press article from Yahoo News dealing with the retirement of the last Vietnam-era draftee in the military. The life story of Command Sergeant Major Jeff Mellinger is a good read.

The important thing about Sergeant Mellinger's story is not particularly emphasized in the article. I believe that important thing is finding a job you like, as he so obviously did.

If you keep trying until you find a job you like, then Mondays are as good as Saturdays. You end up enjoying all seven days of the week. Life doesn't get much better than that.

Nobody likes every single aspect of any job. The important thing is to have a job where you like most of it. I sure did.

I spent most of my working life as a college professor, teaching and researching business management. It was a good job, I liked lecturing, chatting with students, and doing the research. I liked the schedule freedom and the opportunities to occasionally do other things or the same thing in other places.

Were there parts of the job I didn't like? Absolutely, I didn't like committee and faculty meetings, grading papers, and arguing with students about their grades. Fortunately, these were mostly minor aspects of the job.

Birthday Wishes

As we settle into this holiday weekend, COTTonLINE wishes the United States of America a happy birthday, and many, many more in the years ahead. Our country is a very good place in spite of the efforts of politicians to spoil it.

The DrsC have visited 91 of the 320 destinations (mostly countries) on The Travelers' Century Club list. In traveling a lot of the globe we've seen other nice places but are firmly of the opinion that there is no place we'd rather call home.

History Repeats

When the U.S. left Vietnam, after spending untold dollars and lives, the government fell and the opposition took over the country. Will the same thing happen in Afghanistan?

Will the Karzai government fall shortly after our scheduled departure in 2014? This article in The Week, found on line in Yahoo News, makes that argument. I think it likely.

Fact Checking Obama

The Washington Post has a regular column called The Fact Checker. The most recent edition thereof looked at the veracity of President Obama's statements at his Wednesday press conference.

He didn't do well; the column is entitled "The missing facts in President Obama's news conference." What makes this interesting is that WaPo is normally pro-Obama. Go see all the errors and half-truths uttered by POTUS.