Writing for the website 1945, Hoover Institute scholar Andrew A. Michta make a point about the war in Ukraine we at COTTonLINE have harped on for years. He explains it thus.
The failure of the latest round of US efforts to secure a ceasefire in Ukraine is yet another testament to Washington’s continued misreading of the stakes in this conflict.(snip) It is, in reality, a key strategic battleground for both combatants.
For Ukraine, holding its defensive perimeter in Donbas is a matter of the state’s very survival. (snip) If Ukraine were to surrender the defensive position in Donbas that it took years to build, it would, in effect, throw itself at Moscow’s mercy.
If Russia were to accept the status quo, the consequence for Putin would likely be the collapse of his regime, as the price in blood and treasure Russia has already paid for his ill-timed imperial adventure would inevitably lead to domestic turmoil that could bring about his downfall.
Translation: Witkoff-Kushner mission was a waste of time and energy that expended diplomatic credit to no avail. As a deal-maker, Trump tends to believe there is always a deal to be made, if sweetened sufficiently. Possibly true in business, not always true in geopolitics.
I have argued Putin has climbed too far out on this metaphorical limb to climb back and survive personally. His only option is to keep trying until he wins. Or until he dies, by natural causes or at the hands of others.
I’d like to be proven wrong, but I’m not holding my breath.
