Saturday, September 12, 2026

Realpolitik

There is a particularly cynical and cold-hearted reason to not want the Ukraine war to be over, or in remission via truce. The reason is simplicity itself -- a Russia tied down fighting in Ukraine is a nation unlikely to make major military moves elsewhere against NATO nations. Plus a Russia fighting in Ukraine increases the incentive for European NATO nations to spend on their own defense, also in our interest.

It is reason enough for the EU nations to keep giving Ukraine enough support to fight on. They might wish to deport Ukrainian refugee men of military age back home. Unfortunately the EU doesn't produce the hi-tech interceptor missiles we do. 

Given the size differentials between Russia (world's largest nation by size, 9th by population) and Ukraine which ranks 46th by size and 47th by population, there is little danger Ukraine will win outright. 

A Russia which grows so sick of losing men and material in Ukraine that it quits and goes home would be no threat to Europe for a decade or more. It would likely have new leadership. That alone creates an opportunity to coax it onto a path of normal statecraft and trade, and away from molesting its neighbors.

Trump knows all of the above. Does it inform his policy choices? I have no private knowledge of US intentions at this (or any other) point. I read the same public news feeds you could, and form my own opinions.