Downgrade Thought Imminent

Jake Tapper of ABC News is reporting that Standard & Poor's is expected to downgrade U.S. debt from AAA to something lower, perhaps AA+ or AA. The Wall Street Journal is citing a report on CNBC which confirms this rumor. Of course it ain't a fact until S&P announces it.

Quote of the Day II

White House Press Secretary Jay Carney, talking with the press corps, quoted on The Business Insider:

The White House doesn't create jobs.

Demonstrably true, particularly in this administration.

Quote of the Day I

Whittaker Chambers, as cited by Steven Hayward on Power Line:

In the U.S. the Left must take power by deception.

Given the Gallup statistics I cited on Tuesday, that statement seems entirely true. Conservatives outnumber liberals in this country roughly two to one.

Trouble in Brazil

Three members of the Brazilian cabinet have resigned or been fired within the seven months the government has lasted. Turnover could signal the eventual breakdown of the governing coalition of 15 parties. See this Reuters article on Yahoo News for details.

Jimmy Carter Territory

Michael Goodwin, who writes for the New York Post, has some pungent things to say about President Obama:

The man who promised to unite the nation instead relishes dividing it at every opportunity.

Maybe he hasn't noticed or doesn't care, but the country is giving up on him. (snip) He's sinking, and his approval is now a woeful 40 percent -- that's Jimmy Carter territory.

Lying With Statistics

Everybody knows men earn more in salary than do women, and they are correct. Almost everybody believes this is based on discrimination against women; that's what we've read and been told.

The truth is that women with children voluntarily seek employment with fewer hours (and consequently less pay). They do this in the U.S. and they do this in countries like Iceland and Sweden that have elaborate child care and parental leave policies.

See this City Journal article by demographer Kay S. Hymowitz. She deconstructs the data and finds the actual, apples-to-apples comparison is that women earn 5-7% less than do men with equal education and experience working equal hours in the same jobs. That isn't nothing, but it's a small fraction of the pay gap usually cited. There are occupations in which women without children make more than their male colleagues.

What Hymowitz shows is that the gender gap is more complicated, and less evil, than we've been led to believe. Here are two interesting quotes:

June O’Neill, an economist who has probably studied wage gaps as much as anyone alive, has found that single, childless women make about 8 percent more than single, childless men do (though the advantage vanishes when you factor in education).

According to a 2007 Pew Research survey, only 21 percent of working mothers with minor children want to be in the office full-time. Sixty percent say that they would prefer to work part-time, and 19 percent would like to give up their jobs altogether. For working fathers, the numbers are reversed.

There is a lot more you'll enjoy in this article.

Politico: Obama No Slam Dunk

The pundits at Politico aren't known for being pro-Republican. Start with that idea and read this long article by Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen which step by step examines the various issues and concludes Obama will have trouble getting reelected.

I believe my favorite quote from the article is their imagined campaign pitch by a Republican nominee in the general election:

"We were promised hope and change — but instead life has been a drag in the Obama years. Millions of people lost jobs, saw the value of their house drop every month he’s been in office, never realized the economic growth he promised and were so cash-strapped they couldn’t buy the big-ticket items they were used to."

A candidate could do much worse than copying that down and saving it for September, 2012. Add in that U.S. presidents don't need to apologize for our role in the world, and you've got a pretty good Republican campaign pitch.

If you've the patience for a long article, VandeHei and Allen do a nice tour of the presidential politics horizon.

Quote of the Day

Reince Priebus, chair of the Republican National Committee, quoted in a Chicago Tribune story about the president's birthday celebration (scroll down):

We’ve lost 2.5 million jobs since this president’s taken office, yet the only job Barack Obama seems to be concerned with is his own.

Charity does begin at home.

Quote of the Day

NBC anchor emeritus Tom Brokaw, speaking on Meet The Press on July 31, 2011, and found on the MTP website (scroll down):

I would say about the tea party, for example, they played by the rules of American politics. They got angry, they got organized, they got here and they got what they wanted, and, and they did it with discipline. Whether or not, in the long haul, it's good for the larger universe is a very open question at this point.

Love 'em or hate 'em, the Tea Party set the tone of the debt ceiling debate. They won much more than I, at least, believed possible. Hat tip to The Wall Street Journal for the citation, and to the Tea Party for a job well done.

Fleeing New York

This Newscore article on the New York Fox TV website cites an Empire Center for State Policy report to the effect that New York State has lost 1.6 million residents during the last ten years. They state:

For the second consecutive decade, New York led the nation in the percentage of residents leaving for other states.

The article blames high taxes and high cost of living. It might also have something to do with the constant chip-on-shoulder 'tude.

Failure Crushes Spirit

A Philadelphia teacher helps her students cheat on standardized tests and explains her reasoning:

I wanted them to succeed, because I believe their continued failure on these terrible tests crushes their spirit.

Her statement is sophistry. Sophistry is the use of fallacious arguments with the intent of deceiving.

The failure this teacher wanted to conceal was her own; she was trying to protect her job. Very likely her students didn't much care one way or the other. In fact they probably never learned their individual scores.

The last line of the article focuses on the basic problem:

Let’s hope that the key issue, ways to help students perform at higher standardized-testing levels, becomes an administration priority.

The quotes are from an article on the Black Entertainment Television (BET) website. Hat tip to Lucianne.com for the link.

Wordplay

Sam Sommers, writing in Psychology Today, about when beauty is a plus and when it is a minus:

While beauty may very well be in the eye of the beholder, sometimes they also beholdin' it against you.

I do love wordplay.

Bollywood, Not Hollywood

This article on the Reason.com website says the best way to subvert militant Islam is via the Bollywood films of Mumbai (formerly Bombay). The author argues that Bollywood films do a better job than the Hollywood variety because they deal with issues more relevant to the lives of young people in the Muslim world.

I'd add that the Bollywood stars, while very attractive individuals, more closely resemble the peoples of the Muslim world than Hollywood stars do. Another major advantage of Bollywood cultural subversion is that it is not associated with the U.S.; any blowback doesn't land here. This article is worth your time.

The article makes reference to two movie segments called Munni and Sheila, which I Googled. They don't conform to the notion of India being sexually conservative; they wouldn't be out of place on a Las Vegas stage. See for yourself.

Gallup: Conservatives Ahead

The Gallup polling organization has data which shows that there are more conservatives (41%) than moderates and more moderates (36%) than liberals (21%). Pundits who claim this is a conservative country are correct.

Gallup has an interesting graph showing trends for the three groups over twenty years. Both conservatives and liberals are increasing slightly, moderates are decreasing at a somewhat greater rate, and fewer people are uncommitted. In other words, the populace is becoming more polarized.

Throughout the last two decades, roughly twice as many people call themselves conservative as call themselves liberal. For regular readers of COTTonLINE, that is good news.

Dems and Sex in Oregon

Steve Duin, writing for The Oregonian, chronicles the sexcapades of David Wu and two other elected Democrats in Oregon, and the party officials who enabled their misbehavior. The unzipped actions of these jerks remind me of President William Jefferson Clinton.

I lived in Oregon for three years; the natives don't welcome outsiders. There was no chance I'd stay; Oregon has a weird Twin Peaks vibe.

Dow Down 265.87

The Dow Industrials closed down 265.87 at 11,866.62, off 2.19% for the day. If you follow the market, this is a big loss. It is surprising that the market would drop that much on news of the debt ceiling being lifted. My source is the Yahoo Finance Market Overview.

Debt Ceiling Deal Passes Senate

The Associated Press reports via Yahoo News that the debt ceiling bill was passed by the Senate 74-26 and will be signed by the President. The U.S. government won't default on its obligations after all; an outcome we more-or-less anticipated, or hoped for.

According to USA Today, in the Senate 19 Republicans, 6 Democrats and one independent voted "no." I find it interesting that in the Senate more Republicans voted against the bill, while in the House it was more Democrats voting "no."

This difference reflects the gerrymandered nature of House districts, which tend to be very much biased toward one party. Senators, representing an entire state, have a greater need to appeal to the entire electorate therein. However, in the last few years as states become more "blue" or "red," that need decreases.

Birds of a Feather

USA Today reports that Census data shows economically successful blacks and Hispanics tend to live in neighborhoods where people are poorer than equally successful whites and Asians. The article claims this is evidence of segregation with the suggestion that they are unable to live in more upscale areas. I don't believe the "unable" part.

I suggest to you that this is instead evidence of choice, of the "birds of a feather flock together" phenomenon of which we are all aware. Economically successful minorities choose to live in neighborhoods where they resemble their neighbors racially or ethnically.

In the suburbs of Washington, D.C., I know there are affluent black neighborhoods. I believe similar neighborhoods exist in Atlanta. These would be exceptions to the Census data cited.

Debt Ceiling Deal Passes House

Last night we wrote that getting the debt ceiling deal passed in the House would be more difficult than in the Senate. It passed the House late this afternoon by a bipartisan margin of 269 to 161.

Of those in favor, 174 were Republicans and 95 were Democrats. Those opposed: 66 Republicans and 95 Democrats. Go here to see the data on National Review Online. The numbers alone don't tell you the more extreme members of both parties voted "no."

Many Tea Party freshmen believed the deal wasn't tough enough, even more liberal Dems believed the deal was too tough. Less extreme members of both parties believed it was an okay compromise. Time will tell who is right.

In the end enough members of both parties put the country's interests ahead of their own. That is good news.

Ajami on Obama

Fouad Ajami has written an excellent article for The Wall Street Journal, concerning our President's lack of faith in American exceptionalism. Too long to summarize here, it does a good job of pointing out instances where Obama felt he had to apologize to the world for America's behavior. Simply another way of saying Obama does not identify with the core culture of the United States.