Deplorables Rising

COTTonLINE doesn’t often label something a “must read,” perhaps as rarely as 2-3 times a year. This morning I’ve got one of these ‘rare birds’ for you, it’s at USA Today. Glenn Reynolds’ topic is class conflict masquerading as culture conflict.

Around the world in the postwar era, power was taken up by unelected professional and managerial elites. ... [Now] it’s important to realize that the post-World War II institutional arrangements of the Western democracies are being renegotiated, and that those democracies’ professional and managerial elites don’t like that very much.

Members of America’s ruling class seemed to view ordinary Americans with something like contempt, using terms such as “bitter clingers,” “deplorables” and flyover people.

If you look at the “yellow jacket” protests in France, the election of Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro and events in places like Italy and Hungary — or, for that matter, the Brexit movement in Britain — you find a similar unhappiness with institutional arrangements and the sleek and self-satisfied elites who benefit from them.

What’s happening in America is an echo of what’s happening in democracies around the world, and it’s not happening because of Trump. Trump is the symptom of a ruling class that many of the ruled no longer see as serving their interest, and the anti-Trump response is mostly the angry backlash of that class as it sees its position, its perquisites and — perhaps especially — its self-importance threatened.

Analysis: accurate.

Brexit Update

Apparently very soon Parliament will vote on Theresa May’s Brexit plan, and everyone seems to believe it will be defeated. People are asking what she will do then, speculating on another referendum or other actions.

What she should do is resign, inasmuch as the defeat means her colleagues do not accept her best effort at Brexit. She should give another Tory leader a shot at fixing the problem.

It isn’t clear May will do this. Frankly, it wasn’t clear that - facing Brexit - she should have formed a minority government with a Northern Ireland Protestant party holding Brexit requirements she cannot satisfy.

Whatever May chooses to do, Anglophiles like yours truly will find worth following.

Lowering Standards?

Instapundit links to a TaxProfBlog article documenting calls by law school deans for California to lower the pass score of its Bar Exam. Their aim is increasing the number of minority attorneys.

Somewhere the shade of Kurt Vonnegut snickers cynically, muttering “Harrison Bergeron.” And those who see the adverse impact of affirmative action say “I told you so.”

Weird Behavioral Science

A study reported in The Scottish Sun (U.K.) finds vegans report being sick more than meat eaters. The data is correlational, no causation should be inferred therefrom. Hat tip to Instapundit for the link.

The study found that vegans had almost five days off a year for the likes of flu, cold and minor ailments - well above the national average.

They were also three times more likely to visit the GP. Vegans reportedly booking 2.6 appointments to see the doctor during the cold and flu season, compared to the national average of 0.7.

Two-thirds of vegans also admitted to taking more time off work due to illness in 2018 than in previous years.

Based on a relatively small sample, vegans I’ve known were neurasthenic, unhappy individuals trying to self-medicate via diet. As the study notes, such efforts are most often futile.

The article implicitly invites you to conclude that being a vegan is unhealthy, and it may be so. An equally plausible explanation is that unhealthy people experiment with things under their control - for instance diet - in an effort to improve their health. Such efforts succeed to the extent the person is susceptible to a placebo effect.

Already Disproven

Many on the left are advocating steeply progressive tax rates on the wealthy. Most notoriously, the irrepressible AOC called for a 70 percent rate.

One of the downsides of having lived a number of decades is remembering all the things which were tried in the past, tried and failed. I suffer that downside.

I remember, for instance, when the income tax rate on really big incomes was much higher. My most vivid memory of that era was all of the uneconomic uses to which capital was put in order to “dodge” taxes.

Having lived in rural areas most of my long life, I saw the glossy “farms” or “ranches” that produced little and cost much. They were normally owned by a surgeon or a big-deal attorney, but run by a hired “manager” who might be the former owner. Their true purpose was sheltering real earned income by engaging in “economic activity” which ran a paper loss while piling up value.

Putting that aside for awhile, lets think about the entire “industry” of tax consultant CPAs who created complex strategies for concealing profits. Who could afford such talent? You guessed it ... the wealthy.

In those days there were said to be talented people who worked a few months a year and then loafed the balance. They were quoted as saying “If I work more I only give the money to the government.”

Those who advocate higher rates claim greater government revenue is their goal. Higher rates are not how you produce higher government revenue, actually lower rates which encourage economic activity produce more total government revenue. The Laffer curve shows this.

Pre-eminence

Conrad Black writes a tour d’horizon of who’s up and down in world affairs, appearing in Canada’s National Post which he once owned. Patriotic Americans will like what he finds, see his conclusion.

The United States, appearing to be disorderly, its establishment and media at war with the occupant of the White House, is demonstrating almost effortlessly how illusory is the idea that any other country or group of countries can challenge its pre-eminence among the world’s nations.

Canadians may not like it; the world may try to pretend otherwise, but however the domestic political tides of America may flow, North Korea is on its best behaviour, the ayatollahs are quaking in their voluminous raiment, and all America’s trade partners, including Canada and China, are accepting what amounts to unilateral renegotiation by the U.S.

No other country in the world has any appreciable influence at all more than a few hundred miles from its borders.

Read the whole thing. Hat tip to RealClearPolitics for the link.

Whose Ox Gored?

Do you recollect when the Trump tax cut passed? We learned that an important part thereof was making state and local income taxes no longer deductible on federal taxes.

This change was carefully tailored to gouge those living in high-tax “blue” states like NY, CA, and CT while impacting those in no-income-tax “red” states like TX and WY not at all.

The partial government shut-down is a similar kind of act. How many Republicans are seriously impacted by it? Most government employees are Democrats, as are most food stamp/SNAP recipients, if they vote at all.

Who will be crying in pain? Schumer/Pelosi’s constituents is who, much more so than Trump’s. Who will be best positioned to withstand it? Trump supporters. Who is likely therefore to win the Battle of the Wall? Trump.

Noonan Returns

Peggy Noonan is back from hiatus - writing as usual for The Wall Street Journal - with a good column on border security. She takes swipes at both sides, relatively fair ones in my judgment, and ends up with this:

All of Mr. Trump’s foes think they do what they do because of him. Extraordinary circumstances demand extraordinary measures. They become like him to fight him.

But some day Donald Trump will be gone. What will we have then? His tormentors think we’ll go back to normal. We won’t, in part because of how they acted in opposition. They think everyone will revert to courtesies, but they will have killed the old ways.

And her conclusion:

Stop this. It’s embarrassing. And it’s wrong. Make a deal.

Great advice, and Trump is willing to deal; it’s sad Schumer and Pelosi have painted themselves into a corner where they can’t negotiate.

Fourth Down

This morning various sources are reporting “progressive” billionaire Tom Steyer has decided not to continue his pursuit of the 2020 Democrat nomination for president. By my count, that makes him the fourth to drop out of the gaggle of aspirants.

It leaves more than forty Democrats still hopeful lightning will strike. Watching them fall by the wayside continues to amuse ... mildly.

Ironically their inspiration was/is Donald Trump. You can hear them thinking “If he could do it, why not me? Am I a less likely candidate than he? No way.”

A Serious Speech on a Serious Problem

I wasn’t able to watch President Trump’s speech on border security last night. Later I read it on a RealClearPolitics website and he makes a good case.

No, Democrats will not be persuaded because they wouldn’t accept as truthful his assertion that the sun rises in the east and sets in the west. Him saying anything makes it suspect in their eyes ... that’s just the reality. I think he may have convinced independents.

Every now and then President Trump is serious about something. When this happens, he is fully able to drop the hyperbole and exaggeration and deliver a straight, closely reasoned speech.

That is what he delivered last night. Those who wish him well might like him to do so more often. However, I find him to be a good judge of when to do “serious” and when to do “pep rally.”

Good Dancing, Bad Policy

Folks have been harrumphing about AOC’s dancing, I have no idea why. Why shouldn’t she dance? She had clothes on and everything....

On the other hand, I have all sorts of problems with some of the clueless stuff she has been filmed saying. Airhead isn’t a good look for a Congressperson.

AOC is a poster child for the failure of modern education. Gen X really hasn’t learned much about our government.

POTUS Alert

President Trump is scheduled to address the nation from the Oval Office this evening at 9 p.m. EST, 6 p.m. PST. His presumed topic is border security and “the wall.” It wouldn’t offend me greatly if he declared an “national emergency” and sent the Army to build the sucker.

Regular COTTonLINE readers will want to watch. It is promised to be a brief (< 10 min.) speech. I will have a comment thereafter.

Variations on a Theme

Rashida Tlaib, the Muslim congresswoman who swore to “impeach the mother f**ker,” also attacked her House colleagues for supporting legislation mildly pro-Israel. It basically allowed boycotting of BDS boycotters. She claimed those colleagues had divided loyalties.

This sounds like projection to me, she has divided loyalty as a Palestinian-American and presumes others do as well. Truly they may have, this sort of thing happens in a nation of immigrants.

Nevertheless, the pot calling the kettle black is never edifying and she should avoid it as well as avoiding making unprovable sexual claims. And besides, we’ve legalized everything else, why not incest? Why pick on the incestuous when nearly every other variation is legit?

Literally vs. Seriously

Over two years ago, Salena Zito wrote in The Atlantic this much-quoted evaluation (scroll down) of how Trump is seen by the legacy media and by his supporters.

The press takes him literally, but not seriously; his supporters take him seriously, but not literally.

Trump is given to hyperbole, who doesn’t know someone like this? We understand that about him and make allowances. The press understands it too, but elects, for its own hostile partisan reasons, to ignore their understanding, and take him literally.

Journalists react to Trump as if he were the Pope speaking ex cathedra. He isn’t. He doesn’t. A better simile would be a cheerleader leading a pep rally, we don’t expect nuance in that setting.

The complaints about his “lies” are contrived. Mostly Trump exaggerates, it’s “overselling” by a “master persuader” in Scott Adams’ terms. So supporters don’t take him literally, but he’s shown we should take him seriously.

Press as Laughingstock

Writing at The Federalist, Lee Smith takes an uncharitable view of the state of American journalism, one with which I concur.

It is now accepted journalistic practice to print, and reprint, any garish fantasy so long as it’s layered with Russian intrigue and Trump team treason. Even as the rest of the country sees an institution that has made itself a laughingstock, the press continues to salute itself for its bravery—or the courage and industry required to take leaks from law enforcement and intelligence officials and Democratic operatives in an effort to topple a president it doesn’t like, elected by neighbors it holds in contempt.

There’s a lot of “holding in contempt” going around these days, I’ve caught myself doing it on occasion. Meanwhile one newspaper after another goes dark, and TV viewership is dropping too.

“...But He Fights”

There is a real tendency for us to think others’ views aren’t too different from our own, especially if those “others” are nominally members of our group. Newly sworn-in Senator Mitt Romney (R?-UT) just experienced this psychological process firsthand.

I’m sure what Romney wrote in the Washington Post represents his honest feelings concerning shortcomings in President Trump’s character. What must surprise him greatly is learning - the hard way - that most in the GOP see the shortcomings and don’t much care.

Instead of leading a vast parade of disgruntled Republicans, Romney finds himself widely ridiculed in the party for opposing the first really effective Republican president since Ronald Reagan. I’ve seen no wave of GOP agreement from other than #NeverTrump sources, who were never numerous on their best day.

Most GOPers feel about Trump the way Lincoln said he felt about Gen. Ulysses Grant. He may be a social embarrassment but he fights (to win) and so we stick with him. It’s likely Roosevelt felt that way about Gen. Patton, too.

Alpha Male Does High Beta

Conservative scholar Steven Hayward writes something good at Power Line, his normal roost online, as a rebuttal to the shade Mitt Romney threw on Trump.

I think Trump is, in Wall Street terms, a “high-beta presidency”—high risk, high reward. I wish he was more prudent and measured in the fights he picks and how he conducts himself. He remains his own worst enemy. I fear Trump’s presidency could end disastrously for conservatism. But in the meantime he has mounted the most vigorous challenge to liberalism of anyone since Reagan, under much more difficult political circumstances.

And not only that, Trump has fun doing it. In that he reminds me of Teddy Roosevelt, both happily hyperactive guys loving the stuff they do.

My opinion: Like TR, Trump should bust monopolies. In our time the malefactors are tech firms.

Designated Patsy ... Heard From

Senator-elect Mitt Romney (R-UT) has written a Washington Post op-ed attacking President Trump. The opinions of Romney are of as little interest as those of John Kerry, or John McCain, or Hillary Clinton - each one a loser in the court of public opinion.

Like the hapless Washington Generals of Harlem Globetrotter fame, Romney did what the left’s playbook calls for Republicans to do. Namely, go out and lose to a Democrat.

That signal ‘accomplishment’ - being the “designated patsy” of the 2012 presidential campaign - makes Romney the Dems’ idea of a good guy. He can now write for the Trump-hating WaPo, Amazon founder Jeff Bezos’ virtue signalling project.

Romney apparently finds standing in John McCain’s recently vacated shoes comfortable. As creepy kid show host Mr. Rogers might have asked, “Can you say ‘RINO’?”

About Alexandra Whatever-Cortez

Writing at PJ Media, Jeff Reynolds does a not-bad review of 2018. I particularly like his choice and reasoning for Most Charismatic Politician of the Year.

Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez, who overcame a profound lack of knowledge about just about everything to get herself elected to Congress. Young, vibrant, good-looking, socialist. The face that spawned a bazillion memes on both the Right and the Left. She mastered what Trump learned long ago — it doesn't matter what kind of press you get, as long as they spell your name right.

I fear we find ourselves in early days of the era of the “reality” politician, in both parties. Not everyone can make it “work,” as Michael Avenatti discovered. Those who can successfully straddle that tiger get a hell of a ride.

Happy New Year

The other DrC and I wish you a Happy New Year, in addition to the one we’d like for ourselves. I suspect 2019 won’t be much fun in Washington, DC, for the minions of government.

Looking forward, I see that Elizabeth Warren plans to run for the Democrat nomination. That likely won’t end well, another old no-charisma white woman trying to lead a party which relies on the young and the non-white.

Warren is one of some 45 Dems who’ve expressed interest in the nomination. Talk about a mob scene, scheduling the debates will be like organizing March Madness. I thought 17 Republicans for 2016 was a bunch.

When politics begin to get you down, remember that there’s way more to life than who is or isn’t elected. A sunset is still beautiful, a piece of chocolate is still yummy, your favorite music is still fun, and the great national parks change very little from decade to decade. The choice to be happy is yours to make.