A Huge Risk Taken

Ed Driscoll posts at Instapundit the following by Matt Taibbi writing at Substack. The subject is the Mar-A-Lago raid, and how big a risk it represents.

We’ve reached the stage of American history where everything we see on the news must first be understood as political theater. In other words, the messaging layer of news now almost always dominates the factual narrative, with the latter often reported so unreliably as to be meaningless anyway. [Monday’s] sensational tale of the FBI raiding the Mar-a-Lago home of former president Donald Trump is no different.

As of now, it’s impossible to say if Trump’s alleged offense was great, small, or in between. But this for sure is a huge story, and its hugeness extends in multiple directions, including the extraordinary political risk inherent in the decision to execute the raid. If it backfires, if underlying this action there isn’t a very substantial there there, the Biden administration just took the world’s most reputable police force and turned it into the American version of the Tonton Macoute on national television. We may be looking at simultaneously the dumbest and most inadvertently destructive political gambit in the recent history of this country.

Can they have been thinking they had nothing left to lose? So far Trump has been Teflon Don - nothing sticks.

Hispanics Shift Right

I've been meaning to write about the political leanings of our Hispanic fellow citizens. Most such are immigrants or the children or grandchildren of immigrants from Latin America and the Caribbean. 

Let's talk about why they or their parents came here. They came despite knowing they'd be viewed as "foreigners" by the gringo majority. With few exceptions, the places they left were poorer, more dangerous, and less free than here. 

Their motives were largely economic, they came to have a decent chance to escape poverty, to have opportunity. The key thing is that, overwhelmingly, they want to be here and consider here to be better than where they or their folks came from. Generally, that perception is accurate.

In other words, their motives for coming here were nearly identical to those of our earlier European and more recent Asian immigrants. We shouldn't be too surprised that their outcomes are beginning to look similar. 

Few Hispanics view themselves as victims, and it shows in data like that Ruy Teixeira cites in his article about Hispanic voting patterns. The recently populist GOP is attractive to substantial numbers of these upwardly mobile strivers.

Afterthought: If they've come here for economic betterment, and experienced that under Trump, but not so much under Biden, the shift rightward among Hispanics is likely to continue.

Trump Speaks

If you've been wondering if Donald Trump will run in 2024, or if he should, go check out a 3 minute made-for-TV ad for Trump which Steve Hayward has posted at Power Line. It's powerful, professionally produced, and says absolutely nothing about the 2020 election while enumerating Joe Biden's many subsequent failures. 

Trump avoids talk about running for renomination and reelection. He talks about how people like you and me will take back the nation and put it on the right path. If I were running for Congress this November, I would show this mini-speech at my rallies.

I hesitate to make a prediction, but it certainly sounds to me like Trump has been taking advice from smart political mavens.

Mar-A-Lago Raid Rumors

With nobody in a position of power talking on the record about the FBI raid on Trump's Mar-A-Lago estate, lots of leaks are surfacing. This afternoon Lucianne.com has links to three such. 

Are they on the level? Who knows? I pass them along, in no particular order, for what they're worth in scandal points, if nothing else.

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The most ominous of the three for MAGA world is from Newsweek. William A. Arkin writes that two unnamed "senior government officials" leaked that the raid was based on information from a whistleblower.

The raid on Mar-a-Lago was based largely on information from an FBI confidential human source, one who was able to identify what classified documents former President Trump was still hiding and even the location of those documents.

The officials, who have direct knowledge of the FBI's deliberations and were granted anonymity in order to discuss sensitive matters, said the raid of Donald Trump's Florida residence was deliberately timed to occur when the former president was away.

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The second concerns Twitter suspending the account of investigative journalist Paul Sperry, this is reported by the site Meaning in History at Substack. Author Mark Wauck writes:

Here, via Zerohedge, is a screen grab of the tweet that I suspect was the real reason for the suspension:

The "PERSONAL stake" that is suggested refers to FBI missteps with respect to the bogus Trump/Russia dossier (aka "Spygate") long since debunked. It reflects a Congressional ("on Hill") suspicion that Trump had acquired documents which named names and incriminated high FBI officials and perhaps policy level execs at the DOJ.

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The third "maybe" comes from Conservative Treehouse by the pseudonymous Sundance. I generally view CTH as being a bit "out there" and willing to report conspiracy theories. It takes a deep dive into the history of the low-level judge who issued the search warrant, and is frankly speculative. 

Judge Bruce Reinhart was the former U.S. attorney in West Palm Beach who spent 12 years as a federal prosecutor, before leaving his position in order to defend a network of employees who operated the Jeffrey Epstein sex trafficking operation.

Considering the FBI predicate for the raid on Trump’s home, as currently identified, is exceptionally weak; and considering the profile of the raid would have landed upon an ordinarily reluctant judicial desk; what if the FBI had leverage over Bruce Reinhart as an outcome of the case against Epstein’s enabler, Ghislane Maxwell.

The client files of Epstein and Maxwell would be currently in the hands of the FBI. If Bruce Reinhart was a client of Epstein it would explain: (a) his original motives to take up a defensive position on behalf of Epstein; and (b) current leverage for the FBI to use in order to get Judge Reinhart to sign a sketchy and dubious search warrant.

Translation: CTH knows a little and is willing to infer a lot. 

Why Gas Prices Drop Now, Not Earlier

Read a non-technical discussion of why gasoline prices are falling now, some months after they went up. The author attributes the price drop to a demand drop which couldn't occur immediately, as it then would have incurred unrealistically high alternative costs. 

However, given time, people can find workarounds which involve the purchase of fewer gallons. They can vacation at the nearby lake instead of driving cross country, they can get smart about combining shopping stops and errands to save fuel. I've seen a fair few on electric bikes and scooters. 

Modern War Between 2nd Level Powers

I just read an interview with a Russian who takes a not-optimistic view of their performance in Ukraine, what they've called the SMO or "special military operation." He is actually rather complimentary about the Ukraine military and not so high on Russian equipment or troop strength.

Yes, it could be propaganda, an attempt to get the West to relax. It doesn't feel like that, I follow military affairs enough to know his views are not happy talk, he gets into tech details. The interview appears at a website called wartranslated.com and originally appeared in Russian. Hat tip to Stephen Green posting at Instapundit for the link.

This interview is primarily for readers with a more-than-casual interest in modern military issues.

Influencing the Great Self-Sort

Axios has recent polling asking Americans about their interests in moving to another state and what would influence their choice of destination. All nine issues are important to at least some members of both major political parties. Some interesting findings.

For both Republicans and Democrats, cost of living is the most motivating factor, though more so for Rs than for Ds. Family and personal reasons are second in importance for Ds, third for Rs. Taxation issues rank second for Rs, and only fifth for Ds.

Another way of describing differences in preference profiles for Democrats and Republicans is the following showing which party places greater emphasis on that issue.

More important to Republicans:
Cost of living
Taxation issues
Education issues

More important to Democrats:
Personal reasons, family ties
Abortion issues
Gun issues
Racial issues
LGBTQ+ issues

Equally important to both:
Jobs, employment

If I were to characterize each group of preferences I would see Republicans emphasizing mostly economic issues while Democrats are emphasizing much more the social factors.

Conflict of Interest Much?

Stephen Green posts this Tweet at Instapundit. 

Talk about a major conflict of interest. Wouldn't recusal have been the appropriate ethical choice?

In Uncharted Territory

There is much furor over the FBI raid on Donald Trump’s Mar-A-Lago estate; such Third World shenanigans are unprecedented here. Let’s review how we arrived at this nasty place.

In 2016 Trump got elected and, while new to government, had some good years. Along came the Covid epidemic - unprecedented in the last century. Like any disaster, natural or otherwise, the government tried to respond. 

In the normal course of events during the epidemic the next presidential election occurred and was not postponed. Local officials in the states took a variety of actions in the name of making voting safer and easier in the face of widespread curbs of people’s mobility. 

Many of these novel actions were honest, others were partisan in motive but alleged to be honest. In some cases state laws and regulations were violated under conditions where motives were at best murky. Hundreds of millions of "Zuck bucks" were spent in asymmetric get-out-the-vote efforts.

Trump campaigned to large, enthusiastic crowds in spite of the epidemic, Biden campaigned very little and then to handfuls of supporters. Trump won more votes than any prior Republican candidate but Biden appeared to have won even more, a much larger turnout than previously recorded. 

It is easy to see how Trump could conclude “he wuz robbed.” I presume we’ll never know whether he was correct in that conclusion. The conditions were at least somewhat unprecedented and our system is not set up to deal with challenges to the honesty of our elections. Perhaps it should be.

In any event, Trump reacted to the situation as one would expect - with bluster and bravado - and Jan. 6 occurred. It was no insurrection but it was a riot and I believe some elected officials were frightened. The Capitol Police were unprepared and they both under and overreacted. National Guard troops - offered ahead of time - were refused as “bad optics.”

Trump affects those who dislike him like an earworm. TDS lives rent-free in their heads and won’t go away. Like any compulsion, TDS pushes its sufferers to do irrational things. 

Pelosi’s Jan. 6 committee, composed entirely of sworn Trump enemies, is one irrational response. The FBI raid on his post-Presidential home is another. 

It may eventually result in criminal charges against Trump, with AG Merrick Garland plotting revenge for the Supreme Court seat he didn’t win.

It has been a long and convoluted path to our present, unpleasant state of affairs.

About Ukraine

We’ve been here before, but for some reason we don’t recognize the pattern. First, some history. When the Soviets were occupying Afghanistan the U.S. supplied weapons to the locals who wanted the Russians to leave. Eventually they did leave. 

Next, following 9/11 the U.S. occupied Afghanistan. Outsiders provided weapons to the locals who wanted us to leave. Eventually - twenty years later - we left.

Now Russians (no longer Soviets) have occupied a fair bit of Ukraine. We are providing weapons to locals who want the Russians to leave. History suggests if we keep supplying weapons, eventually the Russians will leave Ukraine. 

Two ways Ukraine turns out differently. If we tire of supplying weapons. Or if the locals tire of fighting for their own country. 

Meanwhile, Russians are spending and dying while we are just spending. I know which side of that equation I prefer to be on. Daily Mail (U.K.) reports 100 Russian colonels have been killed in Ukraine.

Ronald Reagan outspent the Soviets and they eventually collapsed. It is to be hoped current U.S. leaders share his foresight.

In the Aspens

As you may know, an aspen forest is a single organism, what appear to be various trees are all parts of one living plant. A large aspen forest in Utah is reputed to be the biggest living thing on our planet. 

My WY home sits in a somewhat smaller aspen forest, we and it coexist more or less peaceably. The tree trunks are white and the leaves, which "quake" in a breeze, are a light green. It isn't gloomy.

Deer and aspens coexist naturally, and have, to all appearances, done so essentially forever. The deer nibble the aspen leaves, without damaging the trees much, while the deer droppings and later corpses fertilize the aspen forest. Plus the trees give the deer cover, full grown deer gracefully vanish into the forest with little effort. See photos and more description at the other DrC's blog.

Our screened back porch looks into the forest and the furthest you can see is maybe 50 feet, at least while the leaves are on the trees. In daytime, the deer cannot see us on the porch, while we can see out easily, making it what hunters call "a blind." We sit there resting or eating and watch the deer live their lives, unmolested by us. 

We've seen as many as 6 deer there at a time, adults and spotted fawns. Other times they are elsewhere, we don't own the whole forest, worse luck. 

Last week we saw a fawn which several times jumped straight up nearly a foot, though most don't do it. I was reminded of a young girl doing cartwheels out of pure, giddy high spirits.

Our Nonnegotiable Differences

Writing for The Hill, political reporter Bill Schneider muses about our nation's ideological divisions. I found this paragraph particularly insightful.

Differences based on religion, race and education are not simply differences of interest, like business versus labor. They are differences of values and identity. Differences of interest can be negotiated and compromised. Differences of values and identity cannot.

On the other hand, Schneider stereotypes Republicans as church-attending people without college degrees. I personally know a bunch of college-educated conservatives, some of whom go to church while many do not. I conclude his brush is far too broad. 

Burden-Sharing

Both Washington DC and New York City are proud “sanctuary cities.” Translation: they won’t cooperate with Homeland Security officials who might want to round up and deport aliens who are here without benefit of visa.

Recently the governors of Texas and Arizona have been offering undocumented aliens free bus rides to DC and NYC, and unsurprisingly have found plenty of takers. The mayors of those proud sanctuary cities have been whining about having these unemployed, needy individuals dumped on their doorstep.

How do they think mayors in TX and AZ have felt? How have those border state worthies been dealing? 

There are plenty of other “blue cities” to which the undocumented could be shipped, Minnesota’s Twin Cities and Boston for a couple of examples. Philadelphia, Chicago and St. Louis maybe? If we do enough of this, urban Democrats might press national Democrats to get serious about border enforcement and deportation.

Making Democrats walk their talk can have a moderating effect on policy. Not to mention the joy we experience in hoisting those woke jerks with their own petards.

Fed Up

Gateway Pundit has the most recent Harriet Hageman TV commercial for the GOP House nomination in Wyoming. In it she itemizes all the ongoing things and people that conservatives are "fed up with," interspersed with video clips of this country's domestic (and a few foreign) enemies. 

Hageman finishes with a clip of Liz Cheney whose face morphs into that of George W. Bush. Listed with no digressions, it is clear we conservatives have many serious grievances. 

It is political red meat and Hageman takes no prisoners. Have some bitter fun, go watch it for yourself.

About Corporate Taxes

The so-called "reconciliation bill" which Sen. Manchin negotiated with Majority Leader Schumer and now agreed to by holdout Sen. Sinema will close tax loopholes on corporations and supposedly does not raise the taxes on those individuals making less than $400,000 per year. 

It proudly raises corporate taxes, everyone agrees. So friends, do you suppose the corporations simply dig deep into their pockets and pay up like good little boys and girls? Take it from the old business prof, they do nothing of the sort.

Corporations view taxes they are unable to avoid as part of their cost structure, much as they view raw materials, salaries, R&D, advertising, etc. All of these costs get rolled into the price of the goods and/or services they sell. 

Who pays those prices? You do. When corporations' costs go up, their prices go up. Who pays the taxes is you, but they are concealed in the increased prices. "Increased prices" is a prime driver of inflation, to which the new bill will contribute.

The only place I know where you get told what percentage of the price you're paying is taxes is at some gasoline pumps. On some, a sticker tells you this price per gallon includes the following percentage of state and federal taxes. 

Make no mistake, whether you are or, much more frequently, are not told how much of the price of what you buy is taxes, they are still there and you are paying them. Count on it.

You may wonder what happens when taxes become so high that passing them on means people no longer buy much of the product? The answer is that production levels drop to what the market will buy at the new higher prices. Under these circumstances, those producers unable to cover costs go out of business. When enough of this happens, you get a recession and unemployment increases.

Kansas Leads

In addition to yesterday's primary elections, Kansas had on its primary ballots a law that would have empowered its legislature to severely restrict or abolish abortion in Kansas. That law failed to pass, and the vote wasn't even close, roughly 60% voted against the measure.

Inasmuch as polls have consistently shown that a majority of Americans want abortion to remain legal, this outcome shouldn't be as surprising as many seem to feel it is. Kansas isn't a progressive state so it may well turn out that Dodds doesn't end up curtailing abortion very much. 

Be aware, the Supreme Court didn't find abortion to be unlawful, merely that the Constitution had nothing to say about it one way or the other. If most states end up with legal abortion laws on the books, actual civil liberties will not have much changed.

Instead of hyperventilating, I suggest watching the various states make their own rules on this issue, as the Court has suggested. If a national consensus ever emerges, Congress could eventually enact nationwide regulations.

Newsom Is Gruesome

Joe Concha writes opinion for The Hill. Today he reports that Democrats fearful of Biden losing a reelection bid, are turning to California's Gov. Gavin Newsom. 

Compared to Biden, Newsom is younger, more sure-footed, and has better hair, if you don't mind a lot of gel. And he has been attacking Florida and its Gov. DeSantis, asking people to come to CA.

But here are the numbers: 

California unemployment: 4.3 percent. 

Florida unemployment: 2.8 percent. 

California income tax rate: 13.3 percent. 

Florida income tax rate: 0.0 percent.

And according to the U.S. Interagency Council on Homelessness website,  California has 27.89% of the nation's homeless. With one-eighth of the U.S. population, CA has more than one quarter of all homeless, twice their proportional share. No wonder the employed are leaving. As Concha writes: 

What exactly does the bumper sticker look like? VOTE NEWSOM: He’ll do for America what he did for California!

Yeah, no. Making a paradise repulsive, that's Newsom. 

Electrics Not RV-Compatible

If you've been thinking about buying an electric powered vehicle, and also have dreams of RVing, please read this MotorTrend road test of the Ford F-150 Platinum model top-of-the-line electric pickup pulling various sized RV trailers. At no time soon will electric vehicles be RV-compatible, a key quote.

With only a driver aboard and no trailer in tow, the Platinum achieved a MotorTrend Road-Trip Range of 255 miles. We had been warned to expect the range to be cut in half when towing, but the effect of towing these travel trailers proved even more significant. With the smallest and lightest trailer, we measured a range of just 115 miles. That figure fell to 100 miles with the middleweight camper and sank to a mere 90 miles with the 7,218-pound Grand Design trailer.

To drive back and forth to work and charge it up in your garage every night, an electric may be just fine. To do around-town errands ditto. 

To get out and see our beautiful, huge country, forget it. For that you need at minimum a hybrid, and if RVing, a solely-petroleum-powered vehicle of considerable heft. 

My personal choice is a Ford F-350 diesel pickup truck, which admittedly isn't convenient in city traffic and tight parking spots. The other DrC and I have driven it, and its predecessors all over North America. 

We've RVed wheels-on-the-ground in Fairbanks AK, San Diego CA, Nogales AZ, Corpus Christie TX, Cape Breton Island, Nova Scotia, Key West, FL, and everywhere in-between. That's 49 mainland states, and all 9 of Canada's mainland provinces (it is technically possible to drive to the tenth - Labrador - but we've not done it).

A Drone Strike

The news sources are reporting a CIA targeted drone strike killed al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahri (sometimes spelled Zawahiri), who was the successor to Osama ben Laden. Al-Zawahri was located at a house near Kabul in Afghanistan. Al-Zawahri had a hand in the 9-11 attacks as well as the embassy bombings in Africa and the attack on the USS Cole.

Fox News' Bret Baier called the killing "a major get." That is an unusual use of journalistic slang; "a major get" normally means securing an important on-the-record interview. I suppose an assassin also could use the phrase for a successful hit.

I'm reasonably certain when a terrorist leader is targeted for death, POTUS has to sign off on it. The otherwise feckless Barack Obama got (and deserved) credit for approving the killing of Osama bin Laden. Donald Trump got (and deserved) credit for our taking out Iranian general Soleimani. 

The even more feckless Joe Biden will get (and deserve) credit for killing al-Zawahri. Our leaders need to keep approving hits on those who lead chants of "Death to America" and whose actions match their words. The consequences need to be commensurately serious.

Crying for Argentina

Periodically, COTTonLINE takes a look at the current situation in Argentina. We normally discover the locals have continued to screw up a wonderful country, as this Bloomberg story shows.

Argentina is a country that has much in common with California, which is to say a wonderful set of real estate being destroyed by its malign political system. It has a largely benign climate, lots of good farm land, natural harbors, and a largely ethnic European population. 

Argentina suffers from a political climate in which its voters demand more from the government than they are willing to pay for in taxes. So inflation goes on and on as the government prints money, which becomes worth less while you watch.

As tourists there, our group's guide told us he absolutely demanded his salary in U.S. dollars, and stored what he did not spend out of the country where the government couldn't get their hands on it.