Sunday, June 9, 2024
Biden's Job Creation Claims Hollow?
Before the Covid pandemic, employment was strong. Many businesses closed down during the pandemic and many jobs were lost.
The pandemic "ended" or, more accurately we became accustomed to it and stopped avoiding each other. Retail and service businesses rehired and employment went back up.
President Biden tries to take credit for the boost in employment associated with the pandemic's "end." That is like taking credit for dawn, something that will happen regardless.
The editorial board at Issues & Insights asks the question, "Have 'Any' Jobs Been Created Under Biden?" It is a relevant issue. I'd like to see economic data that tries to tease out the relative impacts of recovery from pandemic and Biden administration policies and practices.
Biden has emphasized creating jobs in the green energy field. Most Americans are very tepid about this at best, if not actively opposed.
Most firms started to take advantage of the new government green emphasis have failed. Actually most new firms do fail, but the number of these which benefitted from government largesse and still went under is notable.
I & I concludes:
Because in the four years since the COVID lockdowns, the working-age population has grown by 8.6 million. No matter how you measure job growth, it hasn’t kept pace with population growth since February 2020.
They also note that the growth of "gig" employment means substantial numbers are holding down more than one job and are double counted in employment statistics.
Saturday, June 8, 2024
Getting the "Wrong" Answers
Apropos of the post immediately below, let me tell you a story. A college friend who earned a psychology doctorate at UC, Berkeley told me in confidence of a study in which he participated as a grad student assistant. He is long dead as are, I'm convinced, his faculty mentors so the story can be told.
The mentors had come up with a nonverbal step in human development which everybody passes at some point. What they'd discovered was the age at which that milestone was passed was inversely correlated with IQ. The higher the IQ, the younger the child exhibited that particular behavior.
Anxious to produce proof that there were no racial differences in intelligence, they tested preschool children categorized as white, black, Asian, and Hispanic. The hope was to show that any differences between racial/ethnic groups were insignificant and thus differences in IQ scores could be attributed to linguistic or cultural issues, not to race.
As you've probably guessed, what they found was entirely politically incorrect. The group rankings were exactly what the IQ tests showed. Asians exhibited the target behavior youngest, followed by whites, followed by Hispanics followed by blacks.
After spending probably 2-3 years on the study, and trying their best to find a way to put a positive spin on the findings, they finally gave up, and moved on to other topics. Having wasted much of his grad school time working on a study which was never published did my friend's career no good at all, and he was bitter about it.
This all happened roughly 60 years ago; taboo topics are nothing new.
Weird Social Science
RealClearScience reports the results of a study of what are the taboo subjects in the social sciences, with particular emphasis on psychology. The researchers interviewed 41 scholars to build a list of topics with a substantial likelihood of getting an author deplatformed or perhaps fired. They came up with 10 hot-button issues.
1. “The tendency to engage in sexually coercive behavior likely evolved because it conferred some evolutionary advantages on men who engaged in such behavior.”
2. “Gender biases are not the most important drivers of the under-representation of women in STEM fields.”
3. “Academia discriminates against Black people (e.g., in hiring, promotion, grants, invitations to participate in colloquia/symposia).”
4. “Biological sex is binary for the vast majority of people.”
5. “The social sciences (in the United States) discriminate against conservatives (e.g., in hiring, promotion, grants, invitations to participate in colloquia/symposia).”
6. “Racial biases are not the most important drivers of higher crime rates among Black Americans relative to White Americans.”
7. “Men and women have different psychological characteristics because of evolution.”
8. “Genetic differences explain non-trivial (10% or more) variance in race differences in intelligence test scores.”
9. “Transgender identity is sometimes the product of social influence.”
10. “Demographic diversity (race, gender) in the workplace often leads to worse performance.”
The researchers then sent these 10 issues to some 4600 psychology faculty who were asked to anonymously rate the truth or falsity of each. Roughly 10% responded. Anonymity of response means there was no way to determine the extent to which the respondents were representative of the whole.
Just over half said scholars should be free to examine questions like these, and 1.6% said the topics should be taboo. Some 46% said "it's complicated" which I presume means some topics "yes" and some "no." Or it may have meant one can't look at scary topics unless tenured.
Friday, June 7, 2024
Thursday, June 6, 2024
Wednesday, June 5, 2024
Remembering D Day
Tomorrow is the 80th anniversary of the D Day landings on the Normandy coast. US, UK, and Canadian troops went ashore and began the fight across France and the Low Countries toward Nazi Germany.
The DrsC have visited the Normandy coast battlefields and seen the difficulties those troops faced. It is a visit worth making and the French have an excellent museum nearby.
While in the neighborhood, go visit the Bayeux tapestries which commemorate another amphibious landing. This one in 1066 C.E. with the Normans successfully invading England.
Didn't Earn It
Sometimes a joke is the most powerful way to torpedo a misbegotten policy. Claiming DEI (Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion) should be decoded as
D i d n ' t E a r n I t
is one such. DEI involves giving less qualified individuals jobs or awards because they are members of some subgroup that has been denigrated in times past.
Very often, DEI hires end up underperforming because they are promoted beyond their skill level. Or rewarded for the category they check off rather than what they've accomplished.
Ironically, this then tends to reinforce the idea that the poor reputation of their group was justified. Having exactly the opposite effect to that which DEI sought.
Tuesday, June 4, 2024
The Evil Laptop
A Federal prosecutor is using the Hunter Biden lap-top as evidence in Hunter's trial for falsifying a firearms purchase application. That is the same laptop some 51 high-level sources in the various three letter agencies (FBI, CIA, DIA, NSA) swore had "all the earmarks" of a Russian disinformation operation.
Now the DOJ believes the laptop is legit, which we knew all along. What is not legitimate is the Garland DOJ. What is also not legit is the Biden "family business" of selling government influence to the highest overseas buyer for millions.
Can't you imagine Joe is running for reelection so he can pardon Hunter and himself? Even if he has to resign after doing so? It wouldn't surprise me.
Biden's Border Bunco
Worried about reelection, and behind in the polls, President Biden has implemented new controls at our southern border which some claim will restrict illegal immigration. If he is able to do so now he was able to do so three years ago, instead of throwing the border wide open.
The plain fact is that Biden liked the border wide open, liked that those entering were grateful to him, and now hates what he has finally had to do to reverse it. If reelected and a lame duck, expect him to throw the border wide open once more, and this time to leave it that way throughout his term.
If you'd prefer the border mostly closed, and carefully controlled, you must elect someone other than Joe Biden come November.
Tuesday Snark
The satirical Babylon Bee captions the photo below with this statement. Hat tip to Instapundit for the link.
Democrats Vow to Arrest As Many Political Opponents As It Takes To Defeat Fascism
This is Felony?
Democrats are having a hard time convincing people that Donald Trump is, in fact, what they understand is a "convicted felon." This is mostly because voters have difficulty in understanding how what he is accused of is a crime.
Ask people what are serious crimes and you'd get answers like intentionally or recklessly hurting another person, damaging or stealing valuable property, forcing sex on an unwilling victim, aiding a national enemy, failing to pay taxes.
He is accused of doing something legal in order to cover up some unattractive but legal behavior while running for office. Presumably deleting a colorful and perhaps unwise email history would fall in this same category, if done in anticipation of running for office. Hillary did this.
A woman getting her hair styled or losing a few pounds before a public appearance seems to be exhibiting similar behavior. We've all done something of the sort, and considered it "putting our best foot forward."
Most of us who don't hate Trump are going to view this prosecution as a made-up "crime." Prosecutor Bragg's brag, while running for office, that he would find some charge to try Trump on reinforces that belief. So does the fact Trump is apparently the first person ever tried for this offense.
House Cleaning at the WaPo
A major shake-up is happening at the Washington Post, historically one of the nation's three top daily newspapers. Vanity Fair has the story.
Publisher Will Lewis made the announcement, which included the executive editor Sally Buzbee leaving. She will be replaced with outsiders coming in from the Wall Street Journal (Matt Murray) temporarily and eventually Robert Winnett from the Telegraph Media Group.
Lewis was asked if he was intentionally bringing in people with a different culture than that currently prevalent at the Post?
“We are losing large amounts of money. Your audience has halved in recent years. People are not reading your stuff. I can’t sugarcoat it anymore,” Lewis said. “So I’ve had to take decisive, urgent action to set us on a different path, sourcing talent that I have worked with that are the best of the best.”
Considering that the WaPo has been, effectively, a media arm of the Democrat National Committee in recent years, Lewis is promising to be a breath of fresh air there. Expect a lot of the committed leftists on staff to either resign in disgust or be fired.
The new people named above are both experienced white men. Replacing DEI with ability is certainly a good first step in revitalizing the paper.
If Lewis manages to drag the WaPo back toward the political center, that's wonderful. It was once a respected media giant. If he doesn't succeed, it may turn out to have been too far gone to save.
Later ... The Daily Caller comments: "As of now, tech columnist/professional cry-bully agitator Taylor Lorenz still has a job. We’ll know Lewis is serious about real change when he kicks that shrieking harpy to the curb."
Or, she leaves under her own power.
Sunday, June 2, 2024
It Was the Third of June ....
Today, June 3, we celebrate Bobbie Gentry and her ur-folk ballad "Ode to Billie Joe." If Wikipedia knows anything, she is 82, long retired, and lives in Los Angeles. I wish her well.
If the song tells us anything, it is how tragedy is embedded in everyday life and how we mostly let it slide off our backs in the service of survival. Those who can't shrug it off end up mired in depression.
Gentry never did say what was thrown off the Tallahatchie bridge, her concern was the unconscious cruelty experienced by Billie Joe's girlfriend elegist.
RFK, Jr. Another Nader?
Power Line's Steve Hayward draws darned close parallels between the Ralph Nader who was somebody, back in the Carter administration days, and the Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. that we see today. It's a connection I hadn't made but it makes sense.
This is more than a curiosity because conspiracy theorist Nader running for president as a third party candidate probably cost Al Gore the 2000 election when he narrowly lost to Bush 2. Hayward suggests conspiracy theorist RFK, Jr. could do the same favor for Joe Biden in 2024, and wouldn't that be poetic justice?
There goes history, rhyming again.
Decoding SCOTUS
A simplistic way to think about the current US Supreme Court is to say there are 6 conservative justices and 3 liberal ones. “Simplistic” but often wrong. Writing for Politico, a legal scholar and an economist have done a math analysis and show that another grouping makes more sense, that grouping comes out 3-3-3.
Other considerations besides conservative vs. liberal are operational. Basically the so-called “conservative 6” end up split between the institutionalist 3 and the not-so-institutionalist 3. This dimension looks at:
How much a justice considers questions outside the facts and the law of a specific case in reaching their positions. This might include things like how much weight to give the court’s previous decisions, how easy it will be for lower courts to apply the new rule, or whether to decide a case more narrowly or more broadly.
About 50 percent of the court’s cases were decided unanimously. Only five of 57 cases — just 8 percent — were decided 6-3 with the six Republican appointees all on one side and the three Democratic appointees on the other. Ninety percent of the 57 cases were decided with at least one liberal justice in the majority.
The three liberal justices voted together in fewer than a quarter of the non-unanimous cases, and the six conservatives voted together only 17 percent of the time.
Having a less simplistic way to understand SCOTUS decisions can be useful.
Ozempic Face
You may have seen articles about "Ozempic face" and wondered if it is a real thing. Sadly, it is, we've seen the proof.
The other DrC sees a medical provider nurse-practitioner near our winter residence. Because we live there half the year and here in WY the other half it is common for 6-7 months to pass between visits.
The 30-something woman was attractive, very nearly pretty and not fat. The next time we saw her she had lost a lot of weight and the other DrC asked her if she'd used "the new weight loss drugs." She said she had done so successfully, was quite slender and proud of that.
Unfortunately her face was no longer attractive. She actually looked a bit haggard, she had definitely aged what looked like 10-15 years in just over six months.
My sense was that she had made a mistake, she seemed oblivious to what she'd lost in attractiveness. Perhaps she was just pleased to be wearing smaller sizes.
I've been considered overweight most of my life, on the other hand I don't look my age. I'm okay with that trade-off.
Saturday, June 1, 2024
Doing a Halfway Job
This photo heads an article in The American Mind, a publication of the Claremont Institute by Joel Kotkin and Wendell Cox, entitled "Why Johnny Can't Build." It shows an example of the deterioration of our highways.
The authors blame much of the problem on the inappropriate shifting of public transportation resources to public transport - trains and light rail. Even when we do pave highways, we don't do a good job.
Once a week in summers the DrsC drive US 89 round-trip between Alpine and Jackson WY, The beautiful road parallels the south fork of the Snake River and is relatively busy for a two lane highway. It is exposed to lots of snow, freezing nights for half the year, and significant freeze-thaw periods in spring and fall.
US 89 was more or less completely resurfaced with the job concluding two autumns ago, they did a nice job as far as this non-engineer could tell. This summer, two years later, it is showing signs of wear - cracks, rough spots, nothing as bad as the photo above, but it isn't holding up.
I expect it will completely need redoing in another couple of years. What this tells me is that the job 2-3 years ago wasn't done properly.
When the road base is carefully built up to a depth of 6 feet or so, the surface holds up longer. My guess is this step was skimped or half-done. Doing it properly is costly and the cost doesn't show when the job is done, but it is cheaper in the long run.
Politicians are always worried about the next election, and thus are terrible at taking the long view. They are always looking for immediate payoffs on the cheap that may help get them reelected. It is a weakness of our system, one we need to recognize and compensate for.
Another example was the spillway for Oroville Dam in California. They poured the concrete without embedding the necessary web of reinforcing rods, The first time heavy rains ran significant water down that spillway it disintegrated and had to be rebuilt, this time with rebar embedded.
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