Lebanon Watch

The international U.N. tribunal investigating the assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in 2005 is reportedly about to issue findings. If those findings incriminate Hezbollah, the Shiite militia called "terrorist" by the U.S. government, then Lebanon may explode.

Is Lebanon worried? Yes and no, according to this Washington Post article. If you follow events in the Middle East, you may find this interesting reading.

Golden State Tarnished

Historian Victor Davis Hanson, writes from his home in rural California for PajamasMedia, about the sad situation in his state. I'm not certain he says anything particularly new, but what he puts together in a sensible, organized fashion is certainly true.

Most people write about California's political gridlock, Hanson doesn't bother. He lists the things many of us know are wrong but also know we must not talk about, lest we be labeled racists or environment-destroyers. Hanson concludes:

Privately millions of all races and ethnic backgrounds, including millions of liberals and Hispanics, are terribly worried. (snip) There are only so many gimmicks left. Either our Governor-elect and veteran liberal Jerry Brown will have to do a Nixon to China, or the Republican House will have to let us go broke and cut off the cash. Either way, it should be an interesting ride.

In this context, "interesting" means the same thing it means in the old Chinese curse, "May you live in interesting times."

Single Term

Larry Sabato, writing for Rasmussen, makes the following prediction:

There’s only one logical conclusion to be drawn: President Barack Obama is down for the count, will have an early lame duck presidency, and will be out of the White House in two years.

There's a prediction conservatives will like.

Political Humor Alert

Ruth Marcus, writing in The Washington Post and reprinted in RealClearPolitics, about the post-election comments of President Obama and Speaker Nancy Pelosi:

Their instincts have tended more to blaming the dogs for not understanding how good the food is for them, not accepting that it's time to tweak the recipe.

Hmmmm, that sounds about right.

Honor Veterans Day

Today is Veterans Day, the day when patriotic Americans honor those who have served in our military. At various times and in various places the date also has been called Armistice Day or Remembrance Day.

It happens on 11/11 because it was on that date in 1918 that the "Great War" we later learned to call World War I ended, at eleven o'clock in the morning. If you enjoy being an American, thank the vets you know for preserving it.

Debt Panel Weighs In

Months ago President Obama picked two old Washington hands to head a commission to study how to reduce the federal debt and deficit. Co-chairs Alan Simpson and Erskine Bowles have made the preliminary report which has enough ugly in it for both Democrats and Republicans to hate.

Cut Social Security, check. Kill popular tax deductions, you bet. Cut federal budgets, yep. Raise the gas tax, sure. Cut farm subsidies, count on it. Raise retirement age, more than a little. Cut defense spending, substantially.

There are things in this bill that Democrats like, and others that they hate. Likewise, things Republicans like and hate. On balance, however, I'd guess there is more there to offend Democrats than Republicans. See this article in National Review Online.

Why do I say so? Because the bill heads us in the direction of a smaller government doing less for the constituents. That has to bum out Democrats. Oddly, a lot of what they propose could garner tea party backing, although not the tax increases.

Here are links to relevant articles on the websites of Bloomberg, MSNBC, and The Washington Post, courtesy of Matt Drudge.

Smart Night Owls

Are you willing to have some fun with science that isn't overly serious? Here is a Yahoo News article about research finding night owls smarter than those who exhibit "morningness."

On the other hand, morning people get better grades, etc. Whichever you are, you'll find something fun in this article.

Changing of the Guard

See a Washington Post editorial about the political changes happening in South America's two largest countries: Brazil and Argentina. WaPo takes note of the accession to power of Dilma Roussef in Brazil, a protege of former President Lula de Silva.

They note as well as the widowing of President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner in Argentina, upon the death of her husband, the former President Nestor Kirchner. There was a sense in some quarters that Nestor was orchestrating Cristina's actions.

Now each of these women will be operating on her own, facing opposite challenges. Roussef needs to continue the successful policies of Lula de Silva, whereas Fernandez de Kirchner needs to move away from the less-than-successful policies of her husband.

As we noted in this space earlier, commenting on a column by Mary Anastasia O'Grady for WSJ, it will be very difficult, albeit desirable, to take Argentina in a new direction. It may be equally difficult to keep Brazil on the winning track upon which Lula had it running.

Political Humor Alert

Joke from Lucianne.com, attributed to a contributor named "Struan" on the topic of carrying a gun:

Q: Why do I carry a gun?

A: Because a cop is too heavy.

I think that's funny, even if it is sad that one should feel the need to carry either.

Poor Pakistan

We wrote a few days back about the question of whether Pakistan could or would be a reasonable ally in the fight against terrorism. Here is another article which deals with this issue, in The National Interest.

The article does not draw optimistic conclusions. My favorite lines from author Christine Fair's piece are these:

Unable to counter India’s expansion through diplomatic, military or political means, Pakistan relies upon the only tool it has: Islamist terrorist groups that operate in India and in Afghanistan.

Terrorism is a weapon used by the weak against the strong. A weak Pakistan cannot give it up.

Quote of the Day

Radio show host Dennis Prager, writing about California's troubles for Townhall.com:

Those who believe in individual responsibility, the free market and personal liberty are a minority in California. We greet each other as Americans would greet each other meeting in a foreign country.

If you've been an expat, as I have, you know what Prager is talking about.

Remember the Edmund Fitzgerald

Sometimes singing about a thing makes it famous. Gordon Lightfoot sang the doleful ballad that begins:

The legend lives on from the Chippewa on down
Of the big lake they call Gitche Gumee
The lake, it is said, never gives up her dead
When the skies of November turn gloomy.

People are still interested in the sinking of the Edmund Fitzgerald, see this article from USA Today website, written by a reporter for the Detroit Free Press. Lyrics are from this site about the event.

The article reports the activities of a retired policeman who spent much of his savings renting a two-man sub to dive on the wreck. It includes a picture of the ship's name, still visible on the hull at a depth of 530 feet.

On a stormy November night, we remember that Lightfoot concluded:

The legend lives on from the Chippewa on down
Of the big lake they call Gitche Gumee
Superior, they say, never gives up her dead
When the gales of November come early.

Argentina Revisited

Mary Anastasia O'Grady writes about Latin America for The Wall Street Journal. This week she is looking at the future of Argentina after the death of strong-man ex president Nestor Kirchner.

O'Grady is not among those who were optimistic upon his death, hoping for a return to rule of law. She says the country is being run by union bosses, who are the power behind the Peronist party. I particularly like her closing thought:

The only thing up in the air is who can maneuver most effectively within a country ruled by the ideology of 1930s economic nationalism. It's like a battle of mafia dons. The rest of the Argentine nation remains a spectator.

Identity Group Voting

If an identifiable group of voters always votes for one party, that party takes them for granted while the other party ignores their interests as irrelevant. If, on the other hand, an identifiable group of voters sometimes votes for one party, sometimes for the other, then both parties pay attention to their interests.

In the last 50 years roughly 90% of African American voters have voted for Democrats. As noted above, Democrats have largely taken their votes for granted and ignored their interests. Mostly Republicans have ignored them as unreachable.

On the other hand, in the election just concluded, Hispanics voted for both parties. A Washington Examiner article has the data:

At 34 percent, Republicans turned in one of their better recent performances with Hispanic voters. If all margins hold as currently reported, Republicans will represent eight of the 30 most heavily Hispanic congressional districts in America. Three of those are South Florida districts with significant Cuban populations.

Cuban Americans are known to favor Republicans; it is interesting that 5 Hispanic congressional districts not dominated by Cuban immigrants appear to have elected Republicans. If over time Hispanics continue to vote for either party, both parties will attend to their interests.

Advanced Gerrymandering 1A

Gerrymandering, and the advantages it gives the party controlling the process, are some of the most arcane aspects of political inside baseball. If you are enough of a politics wonk to want some gerrymandering details, here is an article by Mark Greenbaum from Salon about the current state of play.

The author concludes that our friends across the aisle could be in semi-deep doodoo for the next decade. The reasoning is that in 2010 the Dems lost a number of seats they shouldn't be holding, legacy seats held by blue dog Dems in districts that lean right.

Most of the rest were seats in somewhat conservative districts that were gained during the recent Dem wave elections. Greenbaum believes that the upcoming round of census data-driven redistricting/gerrymandering in state houses controlled by the GOP will tend to strengthen Republican control for the next decade.

Given Salon's lean to the left, you know this notion gives them heartburn. We rarely get the opportunity to say to them, "Gosh, I hope they are correct."

Yesterday's Faces

Teams with losing records fire their coaches, seek new leadership. See what liberal Albert Hunt writes for The New York Times about the continuation in office of the former congressional Democratic leaders:

In U.S. elections where voters expressed disapproval with Washington, the decision of the House speaker to remain as the Democratic leader of the minority, following the re-election in Nevada of the Senate majority leader, Mr. Reid, means that the face of the congressional party will continue to be yesterday. (snip) Republicans were jubilant. Leading Democratic strategists were despondent.

Older = Wiser

I've been wondering for whom older citizens voted in the midterm elections. Here is an article from Politico which answers that question.

Author Byron Tau pulls together results from a variety of sources to conclude that seniors were large contributors to the anti-Democrat wave. Here is the money quote:

The shift in older voters was the most dramatic swing of any age group, George Mason political scientist Michael McDonald said, and it gave the GOP the “magnitude” of its victory.

Tau also indicates that seniors were a larger proportion of total voters in 2010 than in earlier elections. It has always been difficult to motivate young folks to make the effort to vote, more so in midterm elections, and even more so this year.

Adams on Management

Scott Adams, author of the "Dilbert" cartoon series lampooning organizational life, has an excellent article for The Wall Street Journal. His basic thesis is that the prevalence of managers who are "hamster-brained sociopaths" is a real stimulus for our economy. They motivate subordinates to go to work for themselves.

Adams also applies his concept to countries:

The United States is a nation founded by people who couldn't stand the leaders of their old homelands. I'm no geneticist, but I suspect that the "screw it, I'm out of here" attitude can get passed on. We're probably the most disgruntled, self-loathing, hard-to-satisfy people on Earth. It's no wonder our GDP is awesome.

BTW, I spent a career educating managers, some of whom undoubtedly are seen by their subordinates as hamster-brained sociopaths, or worse. Maybe this outcome isn't so bad after all.

Scott Adams is a humorist but I wonder if, like Ann Coulter, he hasn't stumbled across truth in the pursuit of laughs. Along the way Adams takes a couple of hard jabs at affirmative action, jabs only a humorist can get away with.

New Britain-France Defense Treaty

I've been shaking my head at the news that the British have signed a 50 year defense pact with the French. Can you believe the people who fought the Battle of Britain and withstood the London Blitz have made common cause with cheese-eating surrender monkeys?

Talk about the halt leading the blind, my guess is that the pact will be fortunate to last 5 years, let alone 50. Go see this article by a British author in The Wall Street Journal. He is correct; the pact should have been with the United States, or perhaps with the U.S. and Australia.

2012 Begins

The midterm election happened November 2; the presidential derby for 2012 began November 3, if not earlier. One thing about modern politics, the game never stops.

At this point there are two interesting sets of questions to be answered. Set one: will President Obama face a primary challenge and who will be in the running to be the Republican nominee? Set two: who will be the nominees of the two major parties?

In my lifetime, a number of sitting presidents have been denied a second term. Lyndon Johnson, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, George H. W. Bush come to mind. What do they have in common? In every case they had done things that really ticked off the electorate: unpopular war, Nixon pardon, Iran embassy hostages, breaking a no new tax promise, respectively.

Two years from now, will Barack Obama be seen to have ticked off the electorate? Will his phrase be "screwed up health insurance?" Will it, like Herbert Hoover's, be "ignored the bad economy?" Or will he be reelected? These are questions we will be exploring over the next two years.

Let the seminar begin!