Mexico Today

Jorge Castaneda, a former foreign minister of Mexico, has written a book about that country, its culture and people. Here he summarizes his basic thesis for an article in The Los Angeles Times. He writes:

A recent poll carried out by Banamex and Fundación Este País asked respondents whether they thought citizens of Mexico respected its laws. About 49% said rarely or never, and only 6% replied always.

War with Iran?

If you have the patience and fortitude to read a long article about the possible implications and outcomes of a war with Iran, this article by Jeffrey White in The American Interest may be what you need. It is not for the dilettante or the casual reader.

Easton: We Are Divided

Fortune's Nina Easton, writing here for CNNMoney, describes the ways in which we are divided as a nation. Here is the most telling section, in my view:

Conservatives point to the 47% of (not wealthy) people who pay no federal income taxes -- and therefore have no skin in the game.

I also like this line with respect to government mortgage supports:

Why should taxpayers keep people in homes they shouldn't have bought in the first place?

Imagine that half of Americans pay no income taxes. Of course they want the rest of us to pay more taxes, to give them more of what we've got.

The article is more balanced than I've indicated. I've cited the parts I particularly liked.

Evidence of Weak Candidates

The Hill's Michael O'Brien reports on a recent Gallup poll finding that is mixed news for the White House. On the one hand,

President Obama would lose to a generic Republican challenger in 2012, a Gallup poll found Friday.

On the other hand, when paired with each of the existing Republican challengers, Obama comes out ahead.

I speculate that the 2012 race will be one between two dwarves. If the economy continues to tank, any reasonable Republican will win.

Coulter Disses Libertarians

Ann Coulter watched the recent GOP debate and she wasn't at all enthused with Ron Paul's answers. In this Town Hall column she jumps all over the positions Paul took.

One thing to keep in mind as you read the column is that Coulter is an attorney. Her problems with Paul's positions are mostly legal ones.

Sluggish Sun

Matt Drudge provides a link to this Space.com article about the declining activity of the sun. The article summarizes several scientific studies which point it this direction. More than anything else, the sun powers the earth's weather.

The article carefully omits linking solar minima to climatic events. On the other hand, this article in The Register (U.K.) explicitly makes the linkage between solar minima and exceptional cold weather, including the last called The Little Ice Age. Global cooling, anyone?

As If....

Denial is more than a river in Egypt. A reporter who has been writing foreign affairs for decades, Georgie Anne Geyer, weighs in with a Yahoo News column on "the permanent war." She is bemoaning the acceptance by presidents Bush and Obama of more-or-less continuous warfare.

As if our presidents had a choice. As if the American public was ready to turn the other cheek after 9/11, after the USS Cole, after the Kobar Towers, after the Marine barracks in Beirut. Not likely.

When war comes looking for you, you have the options of fighting or surrendering. The west did not declare the Long War, which certainly can be mistaken for permanent. Others declared war on us, and we chose to fight.

It may be that our opponents in the Long War have decided their lives, as currently lived, aren't worth living. That the choices they are willing to accept are either victory or death, nothing less. If so, it is in our interest to oblige them with ample opportunities for martyrdom, at minimum cost to ourselves. We have the technology available to make this possible.

It is important to remember, always, that the choice was theirs. The Long War could end tomorrow if the other side would go home and get on with their lives.

Perry for POTUS?

Go see a quite short Washington Examiner article which makes a heck of a case for Rick Perry as GOP presidential nominee. Is the nation ready for another Texas governor as president? Maybe.

The point the article makes is that Texas has been growing jobs while the rest of the nation has been losing them. Some combination of right-to-work, tort reform, no state income tax, and other pro-business approaches has made Texas into a jobs magnet.

As we sit here in the lap of what looks like a double dip recession, more jobs or a route toward creating them is mighty attractive. If it is still "the economy, stupid," if that is what the American voters care about, Perry is the only guy out there in either party who has a track record of delivering the goods.

Can You Say "Deflation?"

CNBC's excellent Diana Olick, whose specialty is real estate, writes about being at a Standard and Poors conference of economists and real estate experts. At this meeting nobody felt comfortable answering the question "When is this all going to get better?"

There was the usual talk about supply and demand and head-scratching about why today's large supply and low prices haven't stimulated more demand. I believe the article has missed an important piece of economic reality, perhaps because nobody wanted to mention the awful d-word.

The d-word, of course is deflation. When prices drop and people become convinced they will drop even more, the logical thing to do is to defer purchases until the price drops even more. It is the exception to the usual experience that lower prices increase demand.

Deflation becomes a race to the bottom, and is a serious fear of most economists. For purchases that can reasonably be deferred for a year or two, real estate being a prime example, deflationary psychology among buyers can cut demand to near zero.

I believe if I were in the housing market today I would hold off buying with the hope that I could get an even better price in a few months. If many people are holding off, that further suppresses demand thus further depressing prices.

The 'Good Dictator'

That's the title of Matthew Kaminski's Wall Street Journal article about Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and it is almost certainly meant sarcastically. There are some quotes in the article that don't bode well for the country's future. For example, Kaminski quotes a former MP about Erdogan:

Although he tries to have a democratic and Western style, his thinking is much closer to eastern countries, Arabic countries.

That doesn't sound good. Then there is this quote from Erdogan himself, in which he views democracy as a tool, not as a goal:

Democracy is like a streetcar. When you come to your stop, you get off.

I understand that comment to mean "when you've achieved the power you want, it is time to put democracy aside." Sadly, it appears that Ataturk's noble experiment - to build an Islamic nation whose government is secular - is failing.

Alternate Explanations

Most of Newt Gingrich's campaign staff resigned en masse and two explanations are circulating concerning the reasons. COTTonLINE claims no inside knowledge about which, or indeed if either, is accurate.

Explanation number one: the wife, Callista. This explanation holds that Newt's wife of some eleven years was allowed too much influence in how the campaign would be run, influence with which the staffers did not agree.

Explanation number two: many of the ex-staffers were former aides to Texas Governor Rick Perry who has, at this late date, begun making noises about entering the race. This view holds that they quit in order to be available to join the Perry campaign, where their first loyalties lie.

WaPo on Peru

The Washington Post editorial weighs in on the side of looking for a reasonable outcome in Peru. Humala, the newly elected President of Peru talks a good game of being a moderate, but has a record of being a leftist in the Chavez mold.

The Post encourages him to follow the Brazilian model, which works, instead of the Venezuelan model which doesn't. For what it's worth, COTTonLine agrees.

More Demographics

Ron Brownstein writes an interesting column for National Journal that is headed "political connections" but should be headed "demographics." Regular readers of COTTonLINE know how fond I am of demographics.

Brownstein's point is that the traditional pattern in the workforce has been for more young people to be at work than for their elders. This pattern is reversing, we now see more elders continuing to work while young people are having trouble finding jobs.

These two factors are not unrelated. If elders don't leave the workforce, vacancies are not created for young people to fill.

The recent recession zapped the value of elders' savings; reducing home and equity portfolio values that elders counted on to fund their retirements. If ones retirement nest egg is depleted one hesitates to retire.

Let's Start a Rumor

Wouldn't it be a giggle if the father of Rep. Anthony Weiner's wife Huma Abedin's unborn child was in fact Bill Clinton, the husband of her employer, Hillary Clinton? It might explain why Tony was online looking for sex, yes?

Gates Kicks NATO Butt

Robert Gates, speaking recently to a European think tank as he prepares to step down as Secretary of Defense, had some very trenchant things to say about the way other NATO members fail to meet their obligations to the treaty organization. For example, he said:

The blunt reality is that there will be dwindling appetite and patience in the U.S. Congress — and in the American body politic writ large — to expend increasingly precious funds on behalf of nations that are apparently unwilling to devote the necessary resources or make the necessary changes to be serious and capable partners in their own defense.

This is something that has needed saying for a decade or more. Europe spends little on defense in order to be able to afford to spend much on the welfare state most countries maintain. Basically, we provide their defense.

History lesson: there are two major reasons for NATO's muscle being mostly U.S. troops. First, following World War II there was real concern that Europe might go Communist via the ballot box, leaving the U.S. isolated among developed nations. Allowing European nations to spend heavily on the welfare state, by diverting funds from defense, was a way of holding off this threat. One could argue that it worked.

Second, when European nations have had fully developed military capabilities, as they had in 1914 and again in 1939, they have had a tendency to take the world into war. By providing Europe's defense for the past sixty years, the U.S. may well have delayed the onset of World War III, again we'll never know for sure.

Both of those reasons now seem passe. Communist parties in Europe are largely things of the past. Nobody imagines that any European power could so sufficiently divert funds from welfare to defense that they would be able to credibly threaten major war.

Therefore, it was time for someone to threaten what Gates threatened. To demand that Europe either ante up, or the guy with the money (the U.S.) will drop out of the game. The source for the quote is an excellent Associated Press article about the Gates speech that appears in Yahoo News.

Pawlenty Speaks His Mind

John Hinderaker of Power Line has written an excellent summary of an important speech given by GOP presidential candidate Tim Pawlenty. It is powerful stuff, and deserves a wider hearing. If you care about the outcome of the GOP primary, go read it.

Kondracke: Democracy Is Difficult

Morton Kondracke, who edits Roll Call, writes about the difficulties of transitioning nations formerly under autocracy to democracy. His historical parallels are chilling.

His conclusion: that the "Arab spring" will not result in instant democracy, but in something much more ugly - Islamic fascism. Go see his analysis.

A Prediction

Peter Wehner, writing in Commentary, makes several predictions. All are fun and make sense, here is the best of them:

6. Barack Obama’s re-election campaign will jettison the strategy of defending his record for a simple reason: it is indefensible. (snip) As a result, Obama will unleash the most sustained, negative campaign by any incumbent in modern American history.

George H.W. Bush had the successful Gulf War I but ignored domestic politics; Obama has the successful bin Laden take-down but has ignored domestic politics. Bush I couldn't get reelected, Obama understands the similarity of his situation.

Travel Blogging XI

Back Home - More random thoughts from the trip just concluded. Let's begin with why can't we bake good bread in the United States? Virtually every bakery in Europe bakes better bread than all but the best bakeries in the States. They do it seemingly without extra effort. What's going on? Is it that they are very good, we are less-than-skilled, or a difference in ingredients?

----------o----------

Graffiti has caught on everywhere, it is one of our less attractive exports. Some is actually art, most of it is stylized scribble. In Europe you see graffiti on hundred year old buildings, which somehow makes it worse.

Yes, I know, graffiti predates the U.S. but most of that early "marking of territory" was small and colorless, perhaps done with a knife point. The unattractive export I'm talking about is the stuff done with spray cans and/or oversize felt markers, sometimes a stencil, too.

-----------o-----------

Many European restaurants use a portable credit card reader that is roughly the size of a man's shoe. It is carried to the table, your card is run in front of you and returned immediately, and the device prints out your bill. It works, it is convenient, and they've had it for several years - why isn't it used here in the States?

----------o----------

We began our trip home on a Canadair regional jet, operated by Adria on behalf of Lufthansa. Business class seats were exactly the same size and spacing as economy seats - bummer. I expect more room on business class. The only thing we bought with the upgrade was food.

----------o----------

Order a soft drink and get a tiny can the size of a frozen orange juice can, it just fills one of the airline's glasses. I believe I went through three of them. The flight attendant asked me if I wanted ice. I responded with a grin "I'm an American, of course I want ice." Conventional wisdom says we are the main consumers of ice.

----------o----------

As an American if you want to confuse a European waiter, ask for "water with gas." Conventional wisdom says Europeans drink it, Americans don't. It is much like club soda, very refreshing if drunk cold. Another reason to order it is that the restaurant cannot easily refill the bottle out of the tap, as they can with so-called "still water."

----------o----------

By the way, if you are traveling in or flying out of a country where you wouldn't drink the water, don't take ice in your drinks. Probably it is made from the very tap water you wouldn't drink or use to brush your teeth. Freezing the water doesn't kill the bugs.

If ice is being used with booze, don't assume alcohol will kill the germs either. I made that mistake on the Peruvian Amazon drinking Pisco Sours. In an otherwise great trip I had unfortunate results - "Atahualpa's revenge." Alcohol will kill bacteria, much of the time, but not necessarily viruses. Unfortunately, dysentery can be viral.

----------o----------

Most Americans have no idea where Slovenia is, I'd wager. Talk about a nice little country, clean, green, and prosperous too. They have some serious mountains, the Julian Alps, knockout scenery, and cute little towns. Think of a mixture of Italian and Austrian influences on a Slavic base culture.

----------o----------

The Adriatic Sea was very calm during this trip, I wonder if it is normally a calm sea? The Med on the other side of Italy can experience some very rough seas, but it is more open water. Many ships ply these waters, including many dozens of ferries of varying sorts. The ferries tie together the various islands along the coast, as well as providing transport across to Italy.

----------o----------

Ferries with the clamshell opening bow still operate here, like the one that sank with much loss of life in the Baltic. The bow opens up, like a mouth opening. Somewhere the other DrC has pix of the action. It is a practical design because the ferry noses into the dock, pops open the bow, and delivers its wheeled contents - cars, trucks, motorcycles, etc. Passengers walk out too. Perhaps they've solved the weakness that caused one in the Baltic to sink.

----------o----------

Just as common are the ferries with a stern that is a big trapdoor, like the bridge over a moat. These back up to the dock to unload. For reasons that aren't clear to me ferries are more likely to sink than other ships, often with massive loss of life. There must be very strong temptation to overload them as a whole bunch of people want to go where the ferry is headed.

----------o----------

Coming home we flew over the ice fields of Greenland, which are immense. I think we were over Greenland for an hour or more. There are some really serious mountains, we had good weather and daylight so could see them clearly. The tallest mountain is over 12,000 ft. and there are a number of others - the ice fields wend their way among them and apparently flow to the sea. The photographers among us were busy trying to take pix out the plane's windows. It was an amazing view.

Quote of the Day II

Andrew C. McCarthy writing for National Review Online, about radicalism in American Islam:

What radicalizes Muslims is Islam. (snip) What we wishfully call “radicalism” is in fact the Islamic mainstream.

This is a scary article, albeit one worth your time. McCarthy bases much of his article on a research paper recently published in Middle East Quarterly, which you can view here.

It seems Islam in America is experiencing the same trend as Protestant Christianity. That is, the more fundamentalist a congregation, the more people are attracted to it.