Latino Unemployment Down

The conventional wisdom (CW) holds Donald Trump cannot possibly win a significant portion of the Hispanic vote, because of his opposition to illegal immigration and support for his famous border wall. As is so often the case, the CW might be wrong.

Meanwhile RealClearPolitics reports unemployment among Hispanics is hitting all-time lows.

Among Latinos, the jobless rate has only registered below 5 percent for seven months total – in the history of this country. Six of those months have occurred with Donald Trump in the White House, including the April report released last week.

Actually, the Trump crackdown on illegal immigration and the improved Latino employment figures could be cause and effect, respectively. A reduction in the supply of new, cheap labor should, economics tells us, result in increased utilization of those workers already here. It would appear that is exactly what has happened.

Now, if Latino voters give the President credit for their new-found good economic prospects ... perhaps Trump will benefit politically. The extent of that benefit remains to be seen.

JCPOA, R.I.P.

A variety of die-hard Obama enthusiasts are claiming what Trump just did to kill the JCPOA (aka "Iran nuclear deal") means "America's Word is Worthless" as Roger Cohen of The New York Times puts it. Horsefeathers, what Trump demonstrated anew was that Obama's word was worthless, something we already knew from not being able to keep our doctors as he had promised.

Obama made a deal with Iran so unfavorable he knew our Senate would never approve it as a treaty, so he didn't submit it for their consideration. Whether the mullahs understood or not, that made the JCPOA a deal between Obama and Iran, not between the United States and Iran.

Obama term limited out of office in early 2017, and when he left the "deal" such as it was, had no further force unless Obama's successor chose to leave it in place. Successor Trump chose instead to keep his campaign promise, he abrogated the JCPOA by reinstituting the sanctions it lifted.

Exterminating "Violent Shia Revolution"

At age 95 Henry Kissinger won't be with us much longer; he has, however, consistently been one of the great foreign policy minds of our era. In 2006, Kissinger wrote in The Washington Post:

A modern, strong, peaceful Iran could become a pillar of stability and progress in the region. This cannot happen unless Iran's leaders decide whether they are representing a cause or a nation -- whether their basic motivation is crusading or international cooperation.

Looking back twelve years, Michael Goodwin of the New York Post observes,

In the years since, Iran’s leaders have made their choice bloody obvious: Iran is a cause, and that cause is spreading a violent Shia revolution throughout the Mideast and across the world.

With nations, you can cut deals. With causes, as we discovered with Communism, there's no "dealing with." You have to exterminate causes, slowly via economic strangulation or rapidly with kinetic force.

L.A. Jails - "Largest Mental Institution" in U.S.

SDrudge Report links to a report at the Kaiser Health News site with this sad title:

Use of Psychiatric Drugs Soars in California Jails

The article describes something COTTonLINE has been saying for a decade or more. Without mental hospitals, the not sane are being left "on the street" until their illness causes problematic behavior. At which point they end up in jail or prison or dead.

The number of jail inmates in California taking psychotropic drugs has jumped about 25 percent in five years, and they now account for about a fifth of the county jail population across the state.

Amid a severe shortage of psychiatric beds and community-based treatment throughout the state and nation, jails have become repositories for people in the throes of acute mental health crises.

Across California and the U.S., far more people with mental illness are housed in jails and prisons than in psychiatric hospitals. That poses well-documented challenges: Insufficient staff training and patient treatment have contributed to inmate suicides, self-mutilation, violence and other problems.

In Los Angeles County, whose jails have been described as the largest mental institution in the country, about 30 percent of the 18,000 inmates are mentally ill and most of those diagnosed are on medication, said Joseph Ortego, chief psychiatrist for correctional health services in L.A. County.

The article points out that jails are scarcely a "therapeutic environment" and few of the mentally ill so housed can be expected to improve. Psychotropic drugs do make prisoners more "manageable" and that's not trivial in conditions of overcrowding.

I do not believe, when the decision was made to close our mental hospitals, the intent was simply to move those no longer so warehoused into jails and prisons. It should have been a foreseeable outcome.

Gaming an Iran/Saudis War

Writing at Foreign Policy, Afshon Ostovar of the Naval Postgraduate School makes a comparison of the military forces of Iran and Saudi Arabia. He examines the strengths and weaknesses of each, and concludes a war between them would not be conclusive.

Iran has more men under arms, but no way to deliver them across the Strait of Hormuz. It also has significant ballistic missile forces and successful experience with asymmetric warfare. Iran's allies in the region are all nonstate actors representing, mostly, Shia populations nearby.

The Saudis have fewer men under arms but a much more robust military air capability. They too have no way to invade across the Strait. Generally the Saudis have more up-to-date military equipment and they too have ballistic missiles of unknown quality. By contrast, the Saudis have regional allies in the Gulf and in Jordan, and farther afield, the U.S.

Bias Testing?

Writing at USA Today, NAACP President Derrick Johnson says we should all be tested for implicit racial bias. And what, I ask, if we did that testing and discovered that an overwhelming majority of people of all races and ethnicities were, in fact, biased? What if we discovered that bias against those unlike oneself was a hard-wired part of being human?

Railing against bias is like railing against wisdom teeth, the vermiform appendix or the addictive personality. Or near-sightedness, for that matter. It is, COTTonLINE believes, an evolved part of being human.

Maybe bias is a part of us we’d rather not have in these “enlightened” times, but a part nevertheless. And one that had evolutionary relevance and value over the longer haul of human development.

Wishing it would go away is unlikely to make it do so. Fighting bias will prove, we believe, a Sisyphean task, endlessly frustrating.

On the other hand, its very persistence should provide total job security for an NAACP President. Unlike what preventing polio did to the March of Dimes, bias isn’t going away anytime soon.

A Bye-Ku for Eric Schneiderman

With the customary hat tip to WSJ’s James Taranto, its popularizer, we offer a bye-ku - a haiku of farewell - to Eric Schneiderman, New York State's Attorney General, who resigned tonight after allegations surfaced of beatings administered to several women. He has actively opposed President Trump's agenda and, ironically, vocally supported the #MeToo movement.

Get lost, Schneiderman

Beating women looks bad on 

A New York AG.

Then-private citizen Donald Trump predicted Schneiderman's fall due to a sex scandal almost 5 years ago, see his 2013 Tweet reproduced at The Daily Caller site. It seems Schneiderman was yet another "known wolf."

What Is Wrong With the FBI

Writing at Time magazine, Eric Lichtblau has a long piece detailing the substantial number of times in recent years the FBI has either dropped the ball or done questionable acts for political reasons. I won't try to summarize the article here.

It isn't a quick read and dollars to donuts you won't enjoy the content ... you aren't meant to. He hangs much of the blame on James Comey, currently on book tour after being fired by Trump. If Lichtblau is correct, Comey has much to answer for. Perhaps Robert Mueller, another former Director and Comey crony, shares the blame.

For our national police force - the enforcer of most federal laws and our premiere counterintelligence agency - to be somewhat broken is beyond bad. Somewhere the ghosts of Elliot Ness and J. Edgar Hoover lie uneasy in their graves.

Playing a Lucky Hunch

Want to read an inspiring tale from the last days of World War II? Learn how Army platoon Sergeant Thomas Stafford, aged 21, did the following:

Managed to single-handedly effectuate the surrender of 40,000 Wehrmacht and SS troops -- including 20 German generals.

Note: It didn't hurt that Germans strongly preferred surrendering to Americans, as opposed to Russians, who had a tendency to murder German captives wholesale. RealClearPolitics has the sergeant's story.

News from Nicaragua

Some might call The Miami Herald the "paper of record" for Latin America, just as many say Miami is the unofficial capital of the region, the major city to which people look for a sense of what might be possible in a Latin city.

Today the Herald has a long story about recent political developments in Nicaragua, the bottom line of which is that Danny Ortega and his wife (and Vice President) Rosario Murillo are in trouble, and perhaps on the way out of power. Three key quotes:

He either lives in a civil way, obeying the law and stopping the brutality and the corruption, or he becomes the Nicaraguan version of the Ceauşescus.

The Nicaraguan Army has signaled a reluctance to get involved in a crackdown on the protests.

It's the grandchildren of the people who overthrew Somoza who are going to overthrow Ortega.

Nicaragua under the Sandinistas has long been a U.S. opponent, an ally of Cuba, Venezuela, and Bolivia. It would be nice for all concerned if this antagonism faded.

Sarah Palin ... Reconsidered

The New York Times' Jonathan Martin reports, based on receiving a prepublication copy of his book, that Sen. John McCain regrets selecting Sarah Palin as his running mate in 2008. McCain is said to believe he should have gone with his gut instinct to select Sen. Joe Lieberman, a Democrat turned Independent.

I figure he'd have lost either way and the last thing I want to contemplate is how badly a McCain presidency would have turned out. Instead this mention has me thinking about Gov. Sarah Palin, stylistically and otherwise.

It occurs to me Gov. Palin was a leading indicator of the groundswell movement that elected Donald Trump. Like Trump, she was intuitive, free-wheeling, unpolished and populist/conservative.

Timing, they say, is everything. There was clearly in 2008 a substantial market for what Palin was selling, but it wasn't yet large enough to take someone to the White House. Plus, she didn't have the billions needed to self-fund a primary campaign.

Still, had we of the pundit class been wise enough to read the tea leaves, her popularity signaled a growing receptivity that Donald Trump exploited when it reached critical mass. Honestly, I don't think anybody understood what her popularity meant, at the time.

“Body Language” - the Online Version

Bloomberg’s Leonid Bershidsky writes about research findings from the files of a German firm that sells furniture online. Looking at sales to over a quarter of a million customers, they have found correlates of who is, and is not, likely to default on payment.

Difference in loan default rates between iPhone and Android owners “is equivalent to the difference in default rates between a median FICO score and the 80th percentile of the FICO score.” iPhone ownership, apparently, is a reliable proxy for higher income and thus for creditworthiness.

Those who order from mobile phones are three times as likely to default as those who order from desktops. A customer who arrives at a shopping site from a comparison engine is twice as likely to default as one who clicks on a search engine ad.

A customer who uses her name in her email address is 30 percent less likely to default than one who doesn’t. But it’s better if the email address is linked to a paid internet or cable package than if it’s from a free service, especially an outdated one like hotmail.com or yahoo.com. And it’s better if the address contains no numbers.

Those who shop between noon and 6 p.m. are half as likely to default as midnight to 6 a.m. buyers. Businesses can also expect more trouble from those who make an error when typing in their email address or put in their name and address in all lowercase letters.

Isn’t data mining wonderful? Most of those findings make perfect sense. I can easily envision the firm requiring prepayment from prospective purchasers who trip a number of these “indicators of iffiness.” Hat tip to Lucianne.com for the link.

Argumentation

I am not an attorney; the National Review’s Andrew C. McCarthy is both an attorney and a former Federal prosecutor. If you would understand the jesuitical reasoning upon which the law is based, his current column in NR will definitely help you do so.

McCarthy explains why, in his considered opinion, it is past time for Mueller to lay out (a) what, if anything, he has determined happened with Russian involvement in our elections and (b) who is under scrutiny as complicit therein. McCarthy makes a persuasive argument for an end to prosecutorial secrecy by the Mueller team.

Bye-Ku for James Baker

With the customary hat tip to WSJ’s James Taranto, its popularizer, we offer a bye-ku - a haiku of farewell - to James Baker, former FBI General Counsel, and long-time friend of fired FBI Director James Comey. The Washington Examiner reports Baker resigned yesterday.

Ta-ta, James Baker,

Last year’s demotion made clear

It was time to leave.

Bye-Ku for Lisa Page

With the customary hat tip to WSJ’s James Taranto, its popularizer, we offer a bye-ku - a haiku of farewell - to Lisa Page, FBI attorney, former member of Mueller’s hit squad, extramarital lover of Counterintelligence Chief Peter Strzok, and anti-Trump emailer. The Daily Caller reports Page resigned yesterday.

Adieu Lisa Page,

Your resistance affair was

A career killer.

Cinco de Mayo

Allow me to wish you a pleasant Saturday Cinco de Mayo. It's the classically Mexican holiday celebrated almost exclusively here, but not much south of the border.

I read an explanation once but it proved unmemorable. I'm guessing it is like St. Patrick's Day being a big drunken deal here but not so much in Ireland. Funny how that works, is there a pattern?

Happy Star Wars Day

The other DrC informs me today is Star Wars Day, the day when we can accurately pronounce upon the assembled multitudes this benison.

May the fourth, be with you.

I'm that oddball science fiction enthusiast who isn't a serious Star Wars fan, though of course I see the films. I'm likewise not wild about Star Trek. Blade Runner and Dune on the other hand ... that's me.

A beginning is a very delicate time.

The Too-Many-People Problem

Business magazine Forbes runs an article arguing against a proposed federal regulation limiting airlines' ancillary fees (rebooking, checking luggage, etc.) to the actual cost each engenders for the airline. Forbes argues that doing so will raise airline fees and reduce ridership, as though those are necessarily bad things. Hat tip to RealClearMarkets for the link.

Since the government ended its practice of dictating prices and routes for airlines some forty years ago, the cost of flying has fallen immensely, which has allowed millions of people who previously could not afford to travel via airplane to do so. No small part of these gains have come from the optional services and price competition between carriers that resulted.

Those gains are a benefit if you love that every poor person who wants to go somewhere can afford to be on the plane with you. If you'd rather there were fewer people on board, more elbow and overhead compartment room, and less crowding at the toilets, perhaps it is not a benefit.

If you're someone who would likely be flying anyway, even if fares were, say, 10-15% higher, dropping the fees and raising the prices might make for more pleasant flying. Perhaps you wouldn't have to share the overcrowded skies with "millions of people who previously could not afford to travel via airplane." Plus imagine how happy it would make Greyhound.

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I'm reminded of the contrasting experiences I've had touring Versailles and Machu Pichu. Versailles was so packed with people you could hardly see the decor or move, the only place that was nice was outside on the grounds where the crowding was less. In a word, it was "unpleasant" and I have no desire to return.

The Peruvian government takes reservations and sells a limited number of tickets to enter Machu Pichu each day, thus the grounds do not become a mob scene - there is room to wander and enjoy the stunning views. Machu Pichu was very nice; I am truly sorry I no longer feel up to the physical challenge of hiking around that Andean mountaintop.

Not a Glitch, It's a Feature

I've plugged the columns of Kurt Schlichter, an angry advocate on the right. He is indeed fun to read. Another good choice, when you need somebody to tell off the snowflakes, SJWs and assorted America-hating a**holes of the left, is Andrew Klavan who blogs at PJ Media.

Today he takes on the absurd cultural appropriation fixation of many on the left.

Cultural appropriation is not a glitch of American life. It's a feature. It's part of what makes the country great. We take your culture, we get rid of the oppression, the mass murder, the slavery, the intransigent poverty and the endless internecine wars. We keep the pasta and the funny hats, and occasionally we dress up as you on Halloween. It's a good deal for everyone.

Klavan's basic response to claims of cultural appropriation is "Bite me!" COTTonLINE concurs. A hat tip to Stephen Green, guest blogging at Instapundit, for the link.

Blow Whistle, Sink Career

The nomination of Admiral Ronny Jackson to be Veterans Affairs Secretary led to controversy, and Jackson subsequently withdrew his name. It was alleged that the Army physician assigned to the Vice President, one Dr. Jennifer Peña, was the source of several anti-Jackson allegations.

She has now resigned. The moral of the story is this: If you contemplate being a whistleblower, be prepared to fall on your sword. Assume your career in your present organization will be over, full stop. I hope Peña understood this.

If Peña stays in the Army she'll probably be assigned to a field hospital in Afghanistan or a post clinic in Alaska. If she doesn't quite have 20 years in, she might go along to vest her retirement pay.