Crunch Time

At least some of the time I am an optimist, or at least I don't anticipate the apocalypse on my watch. Recent comments by Russian President Putin, however, appear to be taking us closer to the use of nuclear weapons and that could ruin a lot of lives, including mine. 

I don't live near ground zero, which means getting to 'enjoy' the aftermath of starving, sick refugees and fallout instead of instant oblivion. I'm honestly not sure which would be worse. 

I'm relatively sure Ukraine will not be granted NATO membership while fighting continues. To do so would immediately mean, via Article 5, all of its members are at war with Russia. 

I don't sense a lot of member willingness to go there. Expect NATO to accept Ukraine's application and make some public show of considering it, just to make Putin unhappy. I believe Zelensky understands this and makes public protestations of wanting immediate membership for the same reason.

Meloni Blasts Macron

French President Macron criticized Italian Prime Minister elect Giorgia Meloni and she is having none of it. Power Line has video with subtitles of her reading Macron the riot act. 

Meloni blames Macron's France for creating the conditions in Africa which are causing hundreds of thousands of Africans to migrate to Europe. She concludes "We will not accepts lessons from you." 

I do like Meloni's style. There will be heartburn in Brussels. She is going to be fun to watch.

How Red Is WY?

As snowbirds, the DrsC apply for and file absentee ballots. Ours arrived today and I took a look at mine. I've written WY is a very red state, 22 of 23 counties have Republican majorities registered to vote. The 23rd is barely Democrat-majority, by a couple hundred votes.

So I checked out the ballot for statewide offices, of which there turn out to be 5. For only two of the five did a Democrat bother to put his/her name in the hat: governor and state superintendent of schools. 

The other 3 basically have a Republican running unopposed. You win the Republican primary, you get the job.

Not much suspense about the early November outcome, eh? In the last 30 years we've had exactly one Democrat governor who served two terms. The other 22 years were all GOP. I expect the current Republican Governor Mark Gordon will be reelected.

Off to Join the Circus

One of the weird side effects of an active mind and too little required activity in retirement is making odd mental connections. Here is one of mine for today.

One of the great American myths is running away to join the circus. It pops up in song and fiction plus on TV every now and then. I suppose it really did happen some, maybe quite a bit. 

What you never seem to read or hear is the other end of the story. The people or situation the kid, usually a boy, ran away from. Those he left behind.

Where are the tragic stories of mothers pining for their runaway sons, families searching for the missing child, stories of a long-lost brother? Folks like sad stories but I don't remember many of these featuring a brother or son lost to the circus. 

I've read of sons who went to sea, and the families left behind. But not stories of "we lost a kid to the circus."

Do you suppose they were mostly kids nobody would miss much? Troubled kids? Stepchildren? Kids leaving an abusive, drunken home? It seems likely.

I also wonder how many kids who somehow attached themselves to a circus ended up being molested by troupe pedophiles? It seems a likely scenario in a subculture where violating sexual norms might be overlooked or tolerated.

Anyway, that's my poser for today. Hat tip to the James Darren lyric for the title.

National Park Photo Links

The other DrC has some very nice photos of Yellowstone, the Tetons, and wild animals at her blog here and here. It is worth your while to give 'em a gander. 

The two national parks in Wyoming's northwest corner are a big reason why we - a pair of native Californians - ended up calling Wyoming home. It is world class scenery, for starters. Add in the thermal features which are the world's most elaborate and an unfenced wild animal habitat which you could think of as an alpine Serengeti. Plus the largest high altitude fresh water lake in North America.

The DrsC have visited 120+ countries and, with that as standard of comparison, there is really no place with everything northwestern Wyoming has to offer. It is unique and marvelous and home.

Who Cut The Pipe, Part 2

Jim Hoft, who writes at Gateway Pundit, works the NordStream pipeline attack through the old law enforcement mantra of “means, motive, and opportunity” and concludes it is likely the U.S. sabotaged NordStream 1 and 2. See his conclusion.

While we don’t know for sure whether the United States blew up the pipeline, we do know for sure the United States has the means, motive, opportunity, and moral deficit necessary to drive the world to the edge of armageddon in pursuit of power for its elites.

Since the pipes are now broken, there’s no way Germany can decide to give Putin a free hand in return for gas. Russia can’t deliver gas w/o pipes.

Caveat: Hoft is a person who is inclined to chase conspiracies, not all of which are the real deal.

Travel Note

We are RV camped tonight at the Headwaters campground in the area between Yellowstone and Grand Teton National Parks. The other DrC, our niece, and a longtime family friend have been here since Sunday.

They’ve toured both parks and generally had a good “girls campout.” Their major goal - to see a moose - was achieved today, no bears this trip but plenty of bison and elk. The weather has been perfect, and the crowds are mostly gone.

I showed up this afternoon. Tomorrow we hitch up the truck and tow the RV back to its summer parking spot near our summer residence. The two visitor gals head home to CA, while the DrsC get busy with the various end-of-season shutdown procedures. 

Those include packing the RV for the trip to winter quarters and getting our residence ready to “do a Brigadoon” for the winter. We have been doing this since the mid-1990s, so the process is almost second nature. As you can imagine, the next couple of weeks will be busy.

Who Cut the Pipe?

Somebody bombed the NordStream pipelines 1 and 2 under the Baltic Sea, causing leaks. That much appears to be clear. Exactly who did that is entirely unclear.

In any such event, you begin by asking cui bono, who benefits? In Watergate terms, “follow the money. Putin might have done it to forestall internal enemies who argued “lets quit blowing up Ukraine and go back to the prewar prosperity of trading gas to Germans for BMWs.” If so, his action reminds me of Cortez burning his ships so his troops can’t retreat.

I’m not a big fan of Tucker Carlson but I saw his opening monologue last night. He had video of both President Biden and some U.S. bureaucrat woman threatening to do exactly what happened. 

Carlson questions how the bombing helps Putin, who in any case controls the input end of the pipes and can turn off the valves without damaging expensive and lucrative-to-Russia infrastructure.

The U.S. never wanted Europe to be so dependent on Russian oil and gas. We have the ability, but I don’t see us having the initiative, we tend to be reactive and the gas flows had already stopped. I suppose it could be us burning the European’s ‘boats’ so they can’t cave to Russia in return for resumed gas deliveries

You could argue the Greens might have done it, except they probably don’t have the know-how or the support units needed to accomplish it. Norway benefits as their pipeline bringing North Sea gas to Europe is intact, and Norway has the tech to get it done. But it seems out of character for that normally docile NATO ally.

Does China benefit? Maybe, in the long run. It is a puzzlement.

Whimsy

Buzzfeed accumulates lists of funny/snarky replies to semi-serious questions. One that caught my eye was entitled thusly, you can see it at Yahoo.com. 

25 Hilarious Viral Tweets About The Differences Between Sci-Fi And Fantasy

I particularly like no. 14, scroll down.

Let me clear it up for you: sci-fi is when you’re depressed about the future, fantasy is when you’re depressed about the past, and literature is when you’re depressed about the present.

No wonder I write non-fiction, I'm almost never depressed. Several other comparisons of the two genres are funny, one claims it is whether the protagonist lusts after an elf or a robot. 

Of the two genres, my preference has been Sci-Fi. The only fantasy series which held my interest were the Harry Potter novels and the Buffy TV series. I trudged through Tolkien and found Game of Thrones awfully dark.

Follow-Up

On Saturday we wrote about rumors of instability in China. It turns out to have been not much, a combination of pre-Party Congress jitters and the fallout from Xi arresting high level government officials for corruption. Apparently Xi’s drive to be leader-for-life is still on track to happen. Autocrats gotta autocrat. 

Just imagine - corruption at the levels of government immediately below Xi - in China where such things have been going on for literally thousands of years. Truly, everything old is new again, the emperors had the same problems with greedy subordinates poaching on the imperial turf.

As someone on the Reuters website noted, China’s tight control of information flows makes rumors like this one almost inevitable. Outsiders trying to understand what is going on in China are reduced to “reading the auguries” in oracle-like fashion.

Fruitcake City

On September 3 I wrote that I might have to reevaluate my long-held negative opinion of the University of California, Santa Cruz as a "hippie haven." As sometimes happens, I spoke (wrote, actually) too soon. 

Power Line's Steven Hayward posts a current job opening announcement from UCSC that is so far beyond the pale it appears to be Babylon Bee satire. Here is enough to give you the flavor.

The Critical Race and Ethnic Studies Department at the University of California, Santa Cruz (UCSC) invites applications for a an Assistant/Associate Professor of Critical Race Science and Technology Studies (STS). (snip) A demonstrated record of research that de-centers Western scientific ways of knowing and challenges extractivist capitalist practices is especially welcome as are commitments to queer and indigenous ecologies, trans-species studies, and race-radical approaches to STEM.

I take back what I wrote earlier. UC Santa Cruz is still, and clearly wishes to remain, fruitcake city. 

He's Everywhere

This is clever cartooning; great use of negative space.

Image courtesy of the 9/27/2022 Lucianne.com.

Standards

Mark Tapscott's posts at Instapundit are often infused with happy Christianity, which isn't what I seek from Instapundit. However today he quotes something from Jeff Dunetz with which I am happy to concur, completely.

A Dad’s most important influences are not infrequently subtle and may not be recognized or appreciated for a long time.

This has certainly been true in my long life. Probably my Dad's strongest lesson: in our family we don't act like low-life trash, we have behavioral standards.

I have found myself defending people of modest achievements by saying "They've held a job and earned a living, avoided addiction, stayed out of jail, and if modest, their home is tidy and they don't abuse their SOs. In my book they are good people." Actually, those are my Dad's words about standards, out of my mouth.

The Meloni Vote

A plate of right-wing spaghetti in the face of the left-wing EU.

Image courtesy of Power Line, scroll down.

Brigadoon

While cool autumn arrived a few weeks ago, we are currently enjoying a few days of Indian summer. Can we still call it that? 

This is always a time to cherish, the last few shirt-sleeve days before the autumn chill sets in, to leave no more. I was out today and it was almost hot, 80 degrees and beautiful blue skies.

The leaves are turning. The mountain maples, which grow no taller than a ranch house roof line, turn various shades from rusty orange to a bluish-red that is stunning. The maples grow on the hillsides, seemingly never on the flat. Perhaps they prefer the drainage there.

The cottonwoods haven't done much yet, but a few of the aspen have turned the pure, pale gold which with their white bark is just stunning. Much more expected from both. Of course the dominant conifers stay green all year.

Actually fall is maybe a bit late this year. The other DrC is in Yellowstone with our niece and a family friend, we hauled the RV up there for this year's "girls party." This late in the season YNP isn't awfully crowded, they're having fun and looking for moose (pix at her blog here). I'll bring them home on Thursday. 

We filed for our absentee ballots today, we won't be here in early November to vote in person. It is getting to be time to close down "Brigadoon" and head for winter quarters. I hope the classical reference works for you.

Watch Meloni Speak

If you find newly elected Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni an interesting figure you can see her give a couple of short speeches laying out what she believes. They are posted on Power Line and have excellent subtitles if your Italian is rusty. 

She is no Mussolini, no strutting Fascist. She is an emotional, strong speaker but not at all a threatening figure. Personally, I like her values, and I share her dislikes. She could be a Margaret Thatcher for Italy, which like most free countries could clearly benefit from one.

Bridges Burned

The New York Post is one of the sources reporting lame duck Wyoming Congresswoman Liz Cheney (RINO-WY) says she will leave the Republican Party and campaign for Democrats if Trump is the 2024 GOP nominee. She also plans to campaign now against Kari Lake who's running for governor in AZ.

Self-awareness is difficult for some. About that threat to leave the Republican Party, Cheney is very late with that. The Wyoming Republican Party left Cheney 10 months ago, and in August WY GOP voters endorsed that view with certitude.

What Cheney is now probably doesn't have a modern name. They once called it being a "mugwump" or fence-sitter. That meant her "mug" was on one side of the fence and her "wump" or rump was on the other side. 

The only political thing Democrats and Cheney agree on is their dislike for Trump. It isn't enough to build a relationship on. Can you imagine a Democrat with a realistic chance of election inviting her to campaign with them? I can't.

She has made enemies of most Republicans and she agrees with Democrats about very little. The Greens won't have her and she's no Libertarian. She may have become too toxic even to be a lobbyist.

Bear Sighting

As a retired business prof, keeping a weather eye on the economy is second nature, although my specialty wasn't finance. CNBC reports that, as a result of today's trading, the stock market is now officially in bear market territory.

When a major index like the Dow declines at least 20% it signals a "bear market." Here is some of what they note:

The S&P 500 notched a new closing low for 2022 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped into a bear market as interest rates surged and turmoil rocked global currencies.

The Dow dropped 329.60 points, or 1.11%, to 29,260.81 — accelerating losses in the final moments of trading. The 30-stock index is down about 20.4% from its Jan. 4 closing high.

The down market has political ramifications but most importantly is a leading indicator of recession. Some 70% of bear markets are followed by a recession. 

If it happens, a recession is going to hurt real people who lose jobs or home equity. It will increase government spending while it decreases government revenues.

Afterthought: When the market declines 20% it isn't far-fetched to think of it as the collective commercial wealth of the U.S. having lost one dollar in five. Kind reader, that is a BIG hit.

A Very Dim View

Writing at UnHerd, Thomas Fazi takes an extremely dire view of the economic and social implications of Europe’s (a) reliance on Russian natural gas while (b) opposing Russian war against neighboring Ukraine. Check out this quote:

If it stays on its current course, Europe is looking at years of economic contraction, inflation, deindustrialisation, declining living standards, mass impoverishment, and shortages — and this without taking into account the terrifying prospect of an outright military confrontation with Russia. How can anyone think Europe can survive this without plunging into anarchy?

Fazi believes Europe is very unlikely to cope well with the results of their choices. Candidly, he almost appears to be in favor of letting Putin do his darnedest in Ukraine and elsewhere as long as Russian gas keeps flowing. 

The fallacy in his argument is that while Europe is being hurt, he implies Russia is doing fine. It isn’t, its feared army has been shown to be a mess and its people aren’t loving Putin’s “great foreign adventure” in Ukraine or his call up of reserves. 

Can Putin hang on awhile longer? Probably through the winter, at least. Beyond that, it’s questionable. Can Europe hang on awhile longer? Same answer as above. 

We live in interesting times.

Ukraine Update

Could you profitably utilize an update on the Russia-Ukraine war: its status, strategy, and our involvement as supporters of one side? This by Fred Kaplan for Slate is decent and balanced. 

I won’t say it breaks new ground, but it balances risks and rewards in a way that make sense to me. Hat tip to RealClearWorld for the link.