Friday, April 24, 2015

Misleading Statistics

For RealClearMarkets, Carson Bruno reexamines the unemployment data for California and finds the situation bleaker than reported. It turns out things have turned up only in the greater Bay Area - the 6 counties of Marin, San Francisco, Contra Costa, Alameda, San Mateo, and Santa Clara.

The data from the greater Bay Area masks really disappointing figures for the other 52 counties in this quite large state. Here is the nub of the story:
Prior to the Great Recession, the Bay Area/Silicon Valley region accounted for 17% of the state's labor force and employment and about 14% of the state's unemployment. As of March 2015, the region now accounts for 18% of the labor force, almost 19% of California's total employment, while only 12% of the state's unemployed.

The dynamics behind California's job market are not healthy. It is stacking the unemployed elsewhere, while shoving the jobs into one region. For instance, Los Angeles went from representing 28% of California's employment to 26%, and 25% of the state's unemployed to almost 30%. Los Angeles now underperforms (relative to its share of the population) on both jobs and unemployment, while the Bay Area/Silicon Valley region is greatly over-performing.
When ten percent of counties host almost twenty percent of total jobs, you know there is a lot of hurt happening elsewhere. Bruno's argument is that aggregate CA data conceals the problems that beset most of the state.