Thursday, April 23, 2015

Ugly Electoral Reality

In National Review last November, GOP political activist Myra Adams did some back-of-the-envelope analysis and found that in the six presidential elections since 1992, the Democrats have won outright in 19 states with a total of 242 electoral votes. Required to win: 270 votes, or 28 more. Florida's 29 votes fill that requirement.

Writing today in American Thinker, Gene Schwimmer shows how to use Adams' numbers to predict who will be elected in 2016, his analysis is similarly intriguing. You won't like his conclusion:
If I were a GOP strategist, I would be sweating about now – and in 2020, 2024, and in every presidential election going forward, for as long as the states listed above continue to vote as they have – namely, for every Democratic presidential candidate, regardless, apparently, of that candidate’s experience, honesty, or indeed any other personal characteristic.
On the other hand, American voters rarely give a party a third bite at the apple, after it has held the presidency for two terms. We live in hope....