High-flying tech stocks crashed. The roaring housing market crumbled. And oil, rest assured, will follow the same path down.
Then drawing parallels with the tech and housing booms that both collapsed, he concludes:
We've learned another important lesson from the housing market: The longer prices stay stratospheric, the worse the eventual crash - simply because the higher the prices and bigger the profit margins, the bigger the incentive to over-produce. It's even possible that, a few years hence, we could see a sustained period of plentiful oil supplies and low prices, meaning $50 or below.
I don't know if Tully is right, or wrong, but he sure is interesting and I suspect you join me in hoping he is right.
