538: GOP Looks Strong

Nate Silver, of FiveThirtyEight blog fame, reports polls show strengthening evidence of a Republican Senate takeover two days from now. He gives the GOP a 72% chance. See what he concludes:

The FiveThirtyEight model accounts for the possibility that the polls could be systematically biased — in either direction. If I instead tell the model to assume the polls have no overall bias — even though they might be off in particular states — the Democrats’ chances of keeping the Senate would be just 17 percent. 

I like those no-bias odds, a boost from 72% to 83%. Meanwhile the Washington Post Election Lab model gives the GOP a 96% chance of gaining control of the Senate. Even the NY Times reluctantly gives the GOP a 68% edge.

It ain't over till it's over, but I begin to allow myself to become somewhat optimistic.