Sean Trende (love the name) writes political analysis for
RealClearPolitics and is based outside the Beltway in Trump-loving "flyover" country. He has posted his
overview of the 2018 House election from that vantage point < 6 months before the polls close. He considers 3 factors important:
1. Trump’s job approval has increased.
2. The generic ballot has moved.
3. Special elections are an unproven metric.
After considering each factor, Trende concludes:
Can we say with certainty how the Battle for the House will play out? Absolutely not. Six months is several lifetimes in politics. But there is little doubt that the Republicans’ chances have improved over the past five months, perhaps dramatically so. That is noteworthy, and the CW should adjust accordingly.
Reluctantly, the reported CW is changing; no doubt generating massive heartburn among the chattering classes.
