The Washington Post carries a discussion of the racial sorting in politics that has taken place in the last 40 years. Whites have become more Republican, except for college educated whites. The latter group doesn’t help Democrats much because they tend to live in states which were already voting Democratic.
The author notes that as a group, whites are more economically conservative and socially liberal than non-whites, who are somewhat the reverse. Although he doesn’t explore the issue, this creates a difficulty for Democrats as pursuing the socially liberal positions which attract educated whites can push away the socially conservative non-white voters who make up a majority of their coalition.
Another factor the author ignores is the tendency of people to become more conservative as they grow older. Ours is an aging society, whose birth rate is below replacement. As the electorate ages, expect increasing conservatism which creates a Republican bias.
The drift to tribal/racial politics in the U.S. has been gradual but relatively consistent since 1970. Will it continue? A number of factors suggest it could.
