Venezuela ‘Tea Leaves’

Andres Oppenheimer is COTTonLINE’s go-to guy for analysis of Latin America. RealClearWorld links to an Oppenheimer article in the Miami Herald which explores three possible futures for troubled Venezuela. His headlines, and his estimated likelihood of each:

1. Maduro is forced to allow internationally supervised free elections. (snip) I’d put the probability of this scenario at 50 percent.


2. Maduro stays in power indefinitely. (snip) I’d put the probability of this scenario at 30 percent.


3. A U.S. or multinational military intervention topples Maduro. (snip) I’d give this scenario a 20 percent probability.

His view of why each outcome is or isn’t likely is even more interesting, read the whole article. Bottom line ... a 70% chance Maduro goes.