Talk about news you didn’t want to see. The Washington Examiner has results of a Zogby Analytics poll asking Americans about the likelihood of our nation having a second civil war. Hat tip to Instapundit for the link.
Pollster Jonathan Zogby of Zogby Analytics said that overall, 46% believe civil war is likely versus 43% who don’t.
For once, political parties-Republicans (49% likely and 40% unlikely), Democrats (45% likely and 44% unlikely), and independents (42% likely and 44% unlikely) were somewhat in agreement.
The poll was conducted in mid January, immediately prior to the inauguration. For reasons that are unclear, Blacks and Hispanics were modestly more likely to expect civil war than were Whites.
While this blog has mentioned civil war as a remote possibility, I hope it is clear that I believe it unlikely. I view as slightly more likely a “velvet divorce” like that of the Czech Republic and Slovakia. That is, a non-violent voluntary split into two nations which remain at peace with each other but follow different internal policies.
My most likely scenario for what will come is neither of these but rather a continuation of muddling along, because that is the path of least resistance. Actually solving the “polarized nation” problem would take a degree of energy and will which I don’t sense is available.
