A foreign affairs analyst whose work I respect - George Friedman - writes at Geopolitical Futures about the current state-of-play among China, Russia, and the United States. His view of where we are now and what is likely to happen among them is quite different than others I’ve seen - more sanguine, less apocalyptic. Check out his conclusion:
The more logical and less risky move is for China to reach a political and economic agreement with the United States, and for Russia to do the same, at least with Europe. But to do this, each must be convinced that the U.S. is not interested in a settlement. Showing a lack of interest is the foundation of any bargaining position. The best read is that the U.S. knows that bargaining is coming and is therefore posing as hostile to it. The Chinese have called the Americans’ bet. The Russians shortly will. At any rate now is the time for insults and threats, before we get down to business that may fail regardless of all this.
Each nation wishes to gain more than they give up, which outcome isn’t likely. I think Friedman is giving the Biden team more credit than they’re due, but I’ve been wrong on occasion.
