Two weeks before the run-off election for Egypt's president, one of the candidates is making an overt play for the votes of Christians, women, and centrists, for a civil state. See the Reuters article in SwissInfo.
I've been wondering whether anyone would make this pitch and whether it would attract enough votes of those groups, while not driving away too many of the country's largely Muslim citizens. Whatever else he did wrong, Mubarak ran a civil state that didn't discriminate on the basis of religion. Nobody believes the Muslim Brotherhood is able, much less willing, to do that.
Unfortunately, the candidate making this pitch was a quasi-member of the Mubarak government. I'd hope one of his big pitches would be to revitalize the tourist industry which the current unrest has shut down.
Sunday, June 3, 2012
House Rules
Michael Medved has written a very interesting column for The Daily Beast which I highly recommend to you. For those with limited time, let me summarize the key point.
Medved has the numbers which show that, economically speaking, which party controls the House of Representatives is more important than which party controls the White House. That is a big finding.
The Constitution requires that spending bills originate in the House. A president cannot spend money the Congress won't appropriate. Republican-controlled House sessions don't appropriate nearly as much money as Democrat-controlled House sessions.
Not that who is elected president is unimportant, for that individual pretty much controls both foreign policy and the bully pulpit. However, in terms of who controls the size of budgetary deficits and government spending, Medved says control of the House is key. Hat tip to Lucianne.com for the link.
Medved has the numbers which show that, economically speaking, which party controls the House of Representatives is more important than which party controls the White House. That is a big finding.
The Constitution requires that spending bills originate in the House. A president cannot spend money the Congress won't appropriate. Republican-controlled House sessions don't appropriate nearly as much money as Democrat-controlled House sessions.
Not that who is elected president is unimportant, for that individual pretty much controls both foreign policy and the bully pulpit. However, in terms of who controls the size of budgetary deficits and government spending, Medved says control of the House is key. Hat tip to Lucianne.com for the link.
Requiem for a Burger Joint
For many years there was a greasy spoon burger joint on the square in Jackson, Wyoming - Billy's. No tables, only stools at a U-shaped counter, and the 'entertainment' was watching the burgers being fried and assembled.
Some years the young men (and a few women) working there would allow their creative side a bit of leeway and act like faux New Yorkers - being aggressive and smart-alecky. Other years, not so much.
Some years the staff would be native North Americans, other years immigrants - mostly temporary and legal. Regardless of who worked there, the burgers were great.
The other DrC and I ate Sunday supper there for at least ten years. We'd eat Billy's burgers four months a year and miss them the other eight. This year in late May we drove into Jackson and discovered Billy's, and the Cadillac Bar and Restaurant of which it was part, were closed.
I truly cannot tell you how sad we are. An important part of our Wyoming experience just died. This was the restaurant where we chatted up Dick Cheney's Secret Service detail, where we met Wall Street maven Mario Cabelli, where Bill Clinton ate before he got dietary 'religion.' All gone, alas .... restaurants are like that, ephemeral.
Some years the young men (and a few women) working there would allow their creative side a bit of leeway and act like faux New Yorkers - being aggressive and smart-alecky. Other years, not so much.
Some years the staff would be native North Americans, other years immigrants - mostly temporary and legal. Regardless of who worked there, the burgers were great.
I truly cannot tell you how sad we are. An important part of our Wyoming experience just died. This was the restaurant where we chatted up Dick Cheney's Secret Service detail, where we met Wall Street maven Mario Cabelli, where Bill Clinton ate before he got dietary 'religion.' All gone, alas .... restaurants are like that, ephemeral.
Dowd Cracks Wise
The New York Times' Maureen Dowd, writing about the Obama administration and campaign:
On Friday night, the nation’s capital was under a tornado watch. And that was the best thing that happened to the White House all week.It was a tough week for Team Obama.
Changing Views
Holman Jenkins of The Wall Street Journal writing about attitudes toward health care:
It's a mistake not to root political actions, even those based on "universal" principles, in their time. Two generations ago, the impetus was to extend health care to those who didn't have it. The entire industrial world is at the opposite end of an arc of government growth and sustainability today. The new impetus inevitably will be to deny health care to those whom it is not cost-effective to treat.Denying "health care to those whom it is not cost-effective to treat" is a scary proposition altogether.
Quote of the Day
The Wall Street Journal's Peggy Noonan, writing about the various and sundry screw-ups committed by the Obama campaign:
The president's campaign is making him look small and scared.It is devoutly to be hoped that Miss Peggy's judgment is correct.
Watch Wisconsin
Pay attention to the outcome of Tuesday's recall election in Wisconsin. Lots of money and energy has been deployed by the left to recall Republican Governor Scott Walker.
The right has spent plenty on keeping him in office, too. The election is being seen as a leading indicator of national sentiment for the November election. See a Reuters article for details. Hat tip to Lucianne.com for the link.
The right has spent plenty on keeping him in office, too. The election is being seen as a leading indicator of national sentiment for the November election. See a Reuters article for details. Hat tip to Lucianne.com for the link.
Malaysia Update
It's time to take a look at Malaysia, a nation which has been independent from the British Empire for 55 years. Upon leaving the Brits set up a situation that strongly favored the majority ethnic Malays, who were then (and are still) substantially poorer than the ethnic Chinese minority who control most of the wealth in the country.
It would appear that the Malay affirmative action programs are losing support among ethnic Chinese, see a long, thorough Reuters article on a Yahoo News website. The article leads this way:
Footnote: The English-speaking majority in Canada has been effectively blackmailed for decades by their French-speaking minority. Openly blackmailed, and without shame, with the threat of separation. This scenario is unlikely in Malaysia.
It would appear that the Malay affirmative action programs are losing support among ethnic Chinese, see a long, thorough Reuters article on a Yahoo News website. The article leads this way:
Ethnic Chinese voters, upset over policies that favor majority Malays, have become increasingly alienated from Malaysia's ruling coalition, raising the risk of racial polarization.Multi-ethnic democratic countries are difficult to govern under the best of circumstances, as we know in the U.S. and our Canadian neighbors to the north know much better.
Footnote: The English-speaking majority in Canada has been effectively blackmailed for decades by their French-speaking minority. Openly blackmailed, and without shame, with the threat of separation. This scenario is unlikely in Malaysia.
Saturday, June 2, 2012
Spooky Parallels
Do you remember four years ago when it looked like McCain would win until the markets went down? Could we be experiencing a replay of that thing here where it looked like Obama could get reelected until a couple of days ago? It sure feels like it.
When our people feel uncomfortable about the state of the economy, there is a tendency to vote for change. Yes, I know this blog has taken a pro-change stance since November, 2008. But the mainstream media certainly hasn;'t. Will they now? Or will they continue to back a loser?
CNBC's Jean Chua here writes about Robert Zoellick, President of the World Bank drawing economic parallels between 2008 and 2012. It makes me wonder if there are political parallels too.
When our people feel uncomfortable about the state of the economy, there is a tendency to vote for change. Yes, I know this blog has taken a pro-change stance since November, 2008. But the mainstream media certainly hasn;'t. Will they now? Or will they continue to back a loser?
CNBC's Jean Chua here writes about Robert Zoellick, President of the World Bank drawing economic parallels between 2008 and 2012. It makes me wonder if there are political parallels too.
Friday, June 1, 2012
Financing Politics a Man's Game
The so-called super-PACs or big money political action committees are mostly financed by men. See this Yahoo News article for details.
Frankly, I am not surprised. Decades ago the joke was that the wife got to decide which house to buy and the husband got to decide what political party they'd vote for or whether the family liked the United Nations.
The joke's implication was that she made the important-to-the-family decisions while he decided the airy-fairy esoteric stuff which didn't matter anyway. So men argued about politics, sports, and cars and women discussed what made the best house.
I wasn't so sure this was still true, but perhaps it still is the case when it comes to writing the really big checks.
Frankly, I am not surprised. Decades ago the joke was that the wife got to decide which house to buy and the husband got to decide what political party they'd vote for or whether the family liked the United Nations.
The joke's implication was that she made the important-to-the-family decisions while he decided the airy-fairy esoteric stuff which didn't matter anyway. So men argued about politics, sports, and cars and women discussed what made the best house.
I wasn't so sure this was still true, but perhaps it still is the case when it comes to writing the really big checks.
Jindal Tackles the NEA
If K-12 education interests you, see this Reuters article about pupil vouchers in Louisiana. Governor Bobby Jindal is behind forcing through a state-wide voucher program that is the broadest in the nation. By next year every pupil in Louisiana will have access to state vouchers that can be used at a range of private schools - religious and otherwise.
Each student who takes advantage of a voucher will mean thousands of dollars less for public education. The National Education Association must be outraged.
I admit to being more than a little nervous about some of the religious schools' science curriculums teaching only creationism. On the other hand, all voucher students will have to pass state standardized tests which should provide some need for teaching regular, evolution-based biology.
That's assuming the state of Louisiana recognizes evolution as noncontroversial - a rather sweeping assumption in the biblically literal, highly religious Deep South. On the other hand, Louisiana historically has a large Roman Catholic population, so perhaps it is an exception to the southern evangelical mode.
Each student who takes advantage of a voucher will mean thousands of dollars less for public education. The National Education Association must be outraged.
I admit to being more than a little nervous about some of the religious schools' science curriculums teaching only creationism. On the other hand, all voucher students will have to pass state standardized tests which should provide some need for teaching regular, evolution-based biology.
That's assuming the state of Louisiana recognizes evolution as noncontroversial - a rather sweeping assumption in the biblically literal, highly religious Deep South. On the other hand, Louisiana historically has a large Roman Catholic population, so perhaps it is an exception to the southern evangelical mode.
Economy Tanks
The Wall Street Journal reports the U.S. economy is in the proverbial toilet and the stock market put in it's worst numbers of the year.
Employers added a seasonally adjusted 69,000 jobs last month, the smallest increase in a year, and estimates for the two previous months were lowered. The politically salient unemployment rate inched up to 8.2% from 8.1% in April, and the report immediately became a flash point in a presidential race focused on the candidates' job-creating credentials.Needless to say, Romney blamed Obama for this lack of performance while Obama searched for a silver lining.
Social Media in Trouble
We've wondered when people would catch on that social media ends up revealing TMI, too much personal information. Looks like that question has finally surfaced in the media, see this Yahoo News article for details.
The whole idea of running a diary and sharing it with more or less everybody never made sense to us. The slow motion collapse of Facebook as an IPO is a perfect way of dramatizing this phenomenon.
Instead, what we do with COTTonLINE is share with you our thoughts about "what matters in this world." It's mostly our views of politics, world affairs, demography, science and other stuff we enjoy like travel, films, etc.
Our blog is what we'd hope our input to a conversation would contain face to face, but is somewhat more content-laden because it is one-sided. Because a blog is written, not spoken, we dress it up with links to articles you might want to read about those issues; articles we've read that triggered our conversational content. We hope you enjoy it.
The whole idea of running a diary and sharing it with more or less everybody never made sense to us. The slow motion collapse of Facebook as an IPO is a perfect way of dramatizing this phenomenon.
Instead, what we do with COTTonLINE is share with you our thoughts about "what matters in this world." It's mostly our views of politics, world affairs, demography, science and other stuff we enjoy like travel, films, etc.
Our blog is what we'd hope our input to a conversation would contain face to face, but is somewhat more content-laden because it is one-sided. Because a blog is written, not spoken, we dress it up with links to articles you might want to read about those issues; articles we've read that triggered our conversational content. We hope you enjoy it.
Ugly Vote Scrounging
The White House says aborting a girl fetus is "a very personal and private decision." Wow, the White House must be very desperate to round up every last vote of East Indian and Chinese naturalized citizens, natives of cultures where preferences for male children are particularly strong.
COTTonLINE wants to go on record as saying girl and boy babies have equal rights to life; we believe sex selection abortions are abhorrent. See a CNSNews.com article for details.
COTTonLINE wants to go on record as saying girl and boy babies have equal rights to life; we believe sex selection abortions are abhorrent. See a CNSNews.com article for details.
A Dismal Omen
There is an old stock market adage that an investor should "sell in May and go away." In other words, sell ones shares in May and tuck the money under the mattress, or in a savings or money market account, particularly if a gloomy view of the economy is held. The time to get back into the market is around Labor Day.
It looks like a lot of investors followed that rule, as this CNN Money article reports. The article says the Dow Industrials and NASDAQ had in May their worst month in two years. That means a lot of gloomy investors.
The market predicts what the economy will be doing six months from now. A lot of selling suggests a widely-held dismal view of the economy through November. That isn't good news for the Obama campaign, as they need an economic upturn to boost his chances.
It looks like a lot of investors followed that rule, as this CNN Money article reports. The article says the Dow Industrials and NASDAQ had in May their worst month in two years. That means a lot of gloomy investors.
The market predicts what the economy will be doing six months from now. A lot of selling suggests a widely-held dismal view of the economy through November. That isn't good news for the Obama campaign, as they need an economic upturn to boost his chances.
Thursday, May 31, 2012
Sectarian Civil War
Yesterday we wrote a long post about the situation in Syria. Today we see a Reuters story saying the situation was threatening to degenerate into sectarian civil war - essentially Alawites versus Sunnis.
Reuters suggests the Shia Iranians would back the Assad/Alawite government while the Sunni powers in the region would back the mostly Sunni rebels. Eventually this could evolve into a religious war in the region - Shia vs. Sunni.
Why the U.S. should do anything to interfere with this outcome isn't clear. When various groups of your enemy (in The Long War) decide to battle each other to the death, interfering seems the height of folly.
Perhaps a wiser, albeit Machiavellian, course would be the clandestine supply of untraceable (e.g., ex-Soviet) weapons to both sides via third parties like Bosnia or Ethiopia.
Reuters suggests the Shia Iranians would back the Assad/Alawite government while the Sunni powers in the region would back the mostly Sunni rebels. Eventually this could evolve into a religious war in the region - Shia vs. Sunni.
Why the U.S. should do anything to interfere with this outcome isn't clear. When various groups of your enemy (in The Long War) decide to battle each other to the death, interfering seems the height of folly.
Perhaps a wiser, albeit Machiavellian, course would be the clandestine supply of untraceable (e.g., ex-Soviet) weapons to both sides via third parties like Bosnia or Ethiopia.
Wednesday, May 30, 2012
Weird Poll Report
If you want to read a really strange set of political polling data, go see this report of ABC News/Washington Post poll as reported on the ABC News website. It is truly difficult to suss out the findings. Romney did better among women, but still not as well as Obama, etc. - it is strange reporting.
The main finding was that Romney was on the upswing, while Obama was on a downward path, but they did their best to hide these findings. ABC News confused the opinions of "all adults" and "registered voters" on purpose because they didn't like the opinions of "registered voters," which is the only important number.
See the way they buried Romney's improved numbers among unmarried women, a really big finding because he had problems with this group earlier in the spring.
The main finding was that Romney was on the upswing, while Obama was on a downward path, but they did their best to hide these findings. ABC News confused the opinions of "all adults" and "registered voters" on purpose because they didn't like the opinions of "registered voters," which is the only important number.
See the way they buried Romney's improved numbers among unmarried women, a really big finding because he had problems with this group earlier in the spring.
Romney Secures Nomination With TX Win
Mitt Romney has won the Republican nomination for the presidential candidacy, with his win in Texas. He now has a majority of the delegates.
The win comes as no surprise, he has been the de facto nominee for a month or more. See this Wall Street Journal article for details.
The win comes as no surprise, he has been the de facto nominee for a month or more. See this Wall Street Journal article for details.
Quotes of the Day
Edward Morrissey, writing for The Week and carried on Yahoo News, about the 2012 election; this is the most succinct view of the 2012 election I've seen:
In 2008, Barack Obama ran against the hated establishment. In 2012 he is the hated establishment.And about the Obama campaign, Morrissey says:
Unless they can come up with a better argument for four more years, the American electorate will choose Hope and Change again and give this establishment the boot.
Understanding Syria
American involvement in Iraq has created wide awareness of the situation of Saddam Hussein and the Iraqi people. Saddam Hussein was a member of a Sunni Muslim minority whereas most Iraqis were Shia Muslims. Saddam's Sunni minority dominated Iraq via secret police and terror squads, with the tacit support of Sunni-majority nations like Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan.
The situation in Syria is in some ways a mirror image of that in Iraq. An Alawite minority dominates a majority of Sunnis, using the same police-state techniques used in Iraq. President Assad (an Alawite) brutally suppresses his predominantly Sunni people. Assad has been supported by Shia-majority Iran which is in cold war type conflict with Sunni-majority nations like Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the Gulf emirates.
In both Iraq and Syria we see a strong-man leader trying to protect his minority sect/tribe/people from the predations of a majority that historically won't treat them well if in control. It is easy for us to say the majority should rule, but in this region religious or cultural minorities get rough treatment.
Examples? The Shia minority in Saudi Arabia is notoriously unhappy, as are the Shia in Bahrain. How do you suppose the Bahai and Sunnis feel in an Iran run by Shia ayatollahs, or the Arabs in Israel? Or the Coptic Christians in Egypt? Even the Christian minority in Syria. All feel mistreated by the local majority, whatever it may be.
You've gotta love the Middle East....
The situation in Syria is in some ways a mirror image of that in Iraq. An Alawite minority dominates a majority of Sunnis, using the same police-state techniques used in Iraq. President Assad (an Alawite) brutally suppresses his predominantly Sunni people. Assad has been supported by Shia-majority Iran which is in cold war type conflict with Sunni-majority nations like Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the Gulf emirates.
In both Iraq and Syria we see a strong-man leader trying to protect his minority sect/tribe/people from the predations of a majority that historically won't treat them well if in control. It is easy for us to say the majority should rule, but in this region religious or cultural minorities get rough treatment.
Examples? The Shia minority in Saudi Arabia is notoriously unhappy, as are the Shia in Bahrain. How do you suppose the Bahai and Sunnis feel in an Iran run by Shia ayatollahs, or the Arabs in Israel? Or the Coptic Christians in Egypt? Even the Christian minority in Syria. All feel mistreated by the local majority, whatever it may be.
You've gotta love the Middle East....
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