Writing for The Atlantic Peter Beinart argues Donald Trump cannot bring out to vote large numbers of blue-collar whites who've been uninvolved in recent politics. People who are analogous to the Reagan Democrats of an earlier time.
I can't find the citation but I distinctly remember reading, during the post-mortem following Mitt Romney's 2012 loss, that large numbers of blue-collar whites sat on their hands. They didn't vote for either Obama or Romney.
It was argued Romney would have won, or at least won some additional states in the Rust Belt, if they'd turned out for him as they had earlier for Bush. They were dissuaded from voting for Romney, supposedly, by ads showing him responsible for mass layoffs at firms targeted for turnaround.
Beinart doesn't deal with these folks, or with the extra large turnouts at GOP primaries and low turnouts at Dem primaries. Maybe as he argues Trump isn't bringing in votes not reflected in polling, but his polling is strong.
If primary turnout has any bearing on general election turnout, and presuming most GOP voters cannot stomach Clinton, I believe Beinart overstates the anti-Trump case, by what amount I cannot be sure.
