Tuesday, March 15, 2016

It's Mega-Tuesday

Today is the Ides of March. Five populous states hold their primaries today: FL, NC, IL, MO, and OH.

FL and OH are winner-take-all states, the first two this cycle. Whoever gets the most votes in each gets all that state's delegates. The other three, to some degree, allocate delegates in proportion to votes received.

RealClearPolitics finds the polls suggest Trump should win FL, NC, and IL. Kasich may win his own state of OH. Cruz could win MO.

If the polls are anywhere near accurate, by this time tomorrow Marco Rubio may be a former presidential contender, having failed to carry his home state of FL. If Kasich loses OH, he may be "former" as well. Cruz is in for the long haul, he has money and a non-trivial number of pledged delegates.

On the Dem side, RealClearPolitics has Clinton ahead in NC and FL, Sanders looking strong in MO and closing fast in IL and OH. Now let's sit back and await results as the polls close this evening.