Wednesday, March 16, 2016

The Late Wrap-up

As of midnight, Pacific Time, Missouri hasn't been called for either party! The Trump-Cruz and Clinton-Sanders races are that close. 

With 99% of precincts reporting, the gap between each pair is 0.2%. In other words, they split each 1000 votes 501 to 499. I haven't heard what happens now, perhaps they recount the absentee ballots or await challenges?

On the GOP side, no changes from our earlier report. Trump took FL, NC, and IL, of which only NC was close. Kasich took OH. On the Dem side, Clinton took FL, NC, IL, and OH, of which only IL was somewhat close.

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The many Republicans who don't want Trump had better get behind Cruz, nobody else has a shot. I believe the convention must award the nomination to whoever - Trump or Cruz - can muster the most delegates, on the first ballot or later.

It will be interesting to see where the delegates pledged to Rubio, Carson, etc. will turn. Trump actually has less than half of the delegates so far allocated, meaning if all of the others went to Cruz he'd have a plurality at this point. That exact scenario won't happen, but something similar might. If it happened, that would give the convention "cover" to choose Cruz over Trump.