Thursday, September 30, 2021

Policing Smarter

Writing for City Journal, two authors identify 3 principles which can help police reduce violent crime. The article is relatively short and worth your time.
First, crime is heavily concentrated by place. As a general matter, 5 percent of the locations in a given city account for 50 percent of that city’s crime.

Second, violent crime is heavily concentrated in a relatively few individuals. In general, 5 percent of the criminal offenders (not 5 percent of the general population) in a given city commit about 50 percent of that city’s violent crime.

Third and finally, crime is concentrated in time. It is predictable by hours, days of the week, and season. (snip) The criminal activity in crime hot spots and among chronic offenders tends to occur at night, during the weekends (Thursday night through early Sunday morning), and in the summer.
If policing is concentrated in these places, times, and upon these perps, violent crime can be reduced without over-policing the general population. The places and times are relatively easy to determine, the people are less easy to identify. 

It should be possible to have policies which say “police will vacation during non-summer periods” and “schedule police days off on Sunday through Thursday.” Most police would be on deck, geared up and ready to roll on summer weekend evenings.

Bearing down on the violent criminals will require prosecutor cooperation in charging and sentencing. This not always easy to achieve in these Soros-corrupted times with soft-on-crime DAs.