Yesterday I wrote that 100,000 Russian troops are camped at the border with Ukraine. Today I read that only about half that many troops are there, the 50,000 normally stationed in that part of Russia, and those likely in barracks, not in chilly tents.
So why the confusion? Because the military hardware, the trucks, tanks, cannons, and APCs of another 50,000 troops have been “prepositioned” near the border awaiting the arrival of soldiers. “Prepositioning” is a standard military tactic.
In order for an invasion to occur, the missing 45-50,000 troops have to arrive by train from their normal winter quarters and, it is alleged, they have not yet made an appearance. Once they arrive, assuming they ever do, the countdown to an invasion can be assumed to have started in earnest.
Meanwhile our embassy in Ukraine is sending dependents home, but those of the EU countries have not done so. This suggests we and they have assessed the risks differently.
I speculate Russian intent is to create enough “invasion jitters” in Ukraine for the inhabitants to cave and install the pro-Russian government Moscow desires, to forestall an actual invasion. It could work.
We live in “interesting” times.
