Monday, December 2, 2024

Reflections

Close to a month later, some reflections on the election result. These have had time to "brew" and, I hope, mellow somewhat. 

• The losing Democrats were sent a clear message. It was like: "Your platform, delivered by a weak candidate who was unvetted by a primary season, was rejected by a clear majority of voters. This happened in spite of the fact that your opponent was controversial person who many disliked, including some who voted for him."

• Donald J. Trump is a skilled utilizer of the public media, perhaps one of the most talented political figures of this time. Which does not make him universally popular, far from it. Trump is able to pull off political stunts - whether with a McDonalds or a garbage truck - that would look silly or demeaning if done by most politicians. 

• Even among those who dislike him Trump manages to become an obsession who dominates their thoughts. He is the subject of nearly every news cycle, even when it makes him look bad. Historians will label the 12 year period - 2016-2028 - as the "Trump Era." Joe Biden will be little more than a footnote.

• Trump began influencing US policy two months before his inauguration. His tariff threats have gotten the attention of Mexico and Canada, and perhaps of China. Fear of what he might do has already influenced the actions of Iran.

• Trump's cabinet and ambassadorial picks have been controversial, and designed to shatter the smug complacency of the administrative state. I'll predict that an above-average number of civil servants will file retirement papers in the next quarter or two. He would be well-advised to not rush into back-filling those vacancies.