Sunday, May 10, 2015

A Dubious Policy

Pundits have been calling "brilliant politics" Hillary Clinton's recent pledge to, as President, establish "a path to citizenship" for the millions of illegal immigrants now in the country. No question this amnesty promise is popular with Hispanics, and will net her additional votes among members of this demographic.

What is less clear is the degree to which her policy is unpopular with non-Hispanics, and will cost her votes among the larger, non-Hispanic demographic. Polls show the public has little stomach for "amnesty," which is what Clinton is offering. 

A story at Huffington Post reports Census Bureau CPS data for voting rates for whites, blacks, and Hispanics. 64-66% of non-Hispanic whites voted in 2008 and 2012, similar percentages of blacks voted in those two elections. On the other hand, only 47-49% of Asians and Hispanics voted in those years.

Inasmuch as voter participation among Hispanics is less robust, Clinton's position on this issue may be ill-advised. Would the smart candidate prefer to irritate a larger group two-thirds of whom vote or a smaller group where about half vote?