We think of demographer Joel Kotkin bringing us insights from population trends, something he does well, and often. Writing for
The Orange County Register, today Kotkin tackles U.S. foreign policy problems and does a
credible job. Some key insights:
At great human and financial expense, we turned a country (Iraq) run by a weakened, slightly buggy dictator into a nest of jihadi fanatics fighting Iran’s allies for control of the country.
Of President Obama, Kotkin writes:
His inability to work a treaty with the Iraqi government left it vulnerable for the emergence of ISIS. Refusing to stand up to Syria’s Assad regime, once the “red line” tied to chemical weapons use was crossed, suggested to anyone in the region that the Americans can now be rolled with impunity. To this, you can add an Iran treaty that seems to grease the skids for Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
The biggest challenge to America will not come from the Middle East, but the Eurasian land mass, where China and its new attack dog, Russia, are merrily constructing a new hegemony.
The sense that the U.S. is in retreat, and led by a particularly feckless elite, is widespread throughout Asia. High level officials in places like Singapore have expressed deep-seated fear that none of China’s future aggressive moves – possibly including an open seizure of Taiwan – would be resisted by the United States.
On the plus side, in addition to our new-found energy self-sufficiency, Kotkin identifies our demographic advantage:
The U.S. continues to enjoy among the highest birthrates among high income countries. Europe (including Russia), China and especially Japan all face far more serious demographic decline.
