Sabato on 2016

The University of Virginia's Larry Sabato has a good reputation as an analyst of presidential politics via the Electoral College. See an article in which he combs recent presidential elections to get a hint of what November, 2016, has in store.

Fully 80% of states have voted for the same party in each of the last four elections. In Sabato's mind their voting is a foregone conclusion and he gives them no further thought. He focuses on states which have shown themselves "persuadable."

His very bottom line boils down to this:

If a party wins both Colorado and Virginia, it will win the White House.

If you don't live in one of those two states, you may be able to dodge most of the tiresome political ads. Actually, there are more than than two toss-up states, but fewer than 11.