About Scott Walker's Candidacy

Thomas B. Edsall of The New York Times writes about the approach being taken by Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker toward achieving the GOP nomination for president. Edsall doesn't like Walker but views his campaign with grudging respect for its professionalism and issue targeting.

Unsurprisingly, Walker is targeting likely GOP primary voters with his appeals. Edsall wonders if, in the general election, Walker will be able to essentially forego minority votes.

Polls at this stage are not reliable, but they suggest that Walker could be a credible candidate for the Republican nomination. The general election is a different matter. As Teixeira pointed out, Romney’s 59 percent of the white vote was inadequate, and topping that is a tall order.

One factor working in Walker’s favor is that from 2008 to 2014, white partisan allegiance shifted from rough parity between the parties to a substantial 9- or 10-point advantage for the Republican Party, according to both the Pew Research Center and Gallup. But these trends can be misleading: The Republican white advantage had reached these levels by 2012 and Obama still won, hands down.

True, but in 2016 the Democrats will not have the non-white presidential candidate who was a big draw for minority voters. And what if "white partisan allegiance" shifts even further to the GOP, as I expect?

In many important ways Walker is the anti-Obama. If he doesn't screw up, I give Walker a decent chance to go all the way.