Thursday, May 14, 2015

Why the Cold War Is Back

The Moscow Times reports polling that shows 59% of Russians fear the U.S. and 31% think we might invade them ... no, seriously. Can you imagine anything with a lower probability? Neither can I.

Do we oppose some of their bullyboy tactics toward their neighbors? Certainly. Are we against the reassembly of the empire that was the Soviet Union? Yes.

Are we at all likely to attack Russia? Almost certainly not, at least intentionally. Could it happen accidentally as a result of Cold War-style games of "chicken" in the air or at sea gone wrong? If it ever happens that is probably how it will begin.

Is it likely the U.S. will try to frustrate expansionist Russian ambitions? Guilty as charged, but invasion? That's laughable, look what happened to Napoleon and Hitler ... invading Russia is a chump's game.

If Russia invades a NATO member, the situation could become kinetic very quickly. Even under that scenario, a U.S. ground invasion of Russia is extremely unlikely.

We might, however, bomb the blazes out of Russia if they attack Estonia or Latvia, or shoot up whatever Russian forces were in a NATO country or nearby.