George Friedman of Geopolitical Futures posits an interesting theory to explain why the U.S. is pulling defensive ground-to-air missile batteries out of various allied countries in the Middle East. See his reasoning.
Iran wants nuclear weapons to deter Iraq or another Arab country from launching a repeat of the war in the 1980s. It will be claiming in these meetings with the U.S. that it needs nuclear weapons to deter Arab states that the U.S. armed, particularly with air defenses, making it impossible for Iran to deter them.
If this is the argument that is being made (and I think it is a good one), then the U.S. must minimize Arab air defenses to set the argument for Iran to commit to a nuclear treaty with significant inspections and teeth.
There is no obvious explanation for this decision. It is both sudden and sweeping. (snip) When something is not obvious beyond being clearly important, we come to an interesting point. Normally such moves are slow, limited and designed to calm allies. This one is none of those. Therefore, something important is going on – unless it is simply a clumsy move.
Presented for your consideration. It makes sense as a hypothesis, but I have no idea if Friedman is correct in his supposition. Or, for that matter, if the leadership in Iran is rational enough to understand and respond to the signal Friedman believes is being sent.
