Friday, June 4, 2021

Diverging Rules

Long-time political analyst Ron Brownstein writes in The Atlantic about a set of socially conservative policies being enacted by legislatures in the so-called "red" Republican states. These include election security, limitations on abortion, enhanced gun rights, banning biological males from competing in girls' sports, banning critical race theory teaching in public schools, and limiting governors' powers to impose restrictions on civil rights in the name of controlling epidemics.

The motive, in addition to believing those are good policies? His reporting finds state legislators fear being challenged by a more conservative Republican in the next primary election. I believe this fear is realistic, I'm certain our WY congressperson - Liz Cheney - will face a primary challenge, which I hope she will lose.

Check out Brownstein's conclusions:

In this flurry of red-state action, two patterns are clarifying. One is that even with Trump removed from the White House, his style of belligerent, culturally and racially confrontational politics is affirming its dominance in the GOP.

The other pattern evident in the surge of conservative legislation is the continuing separation of red and blue America. As Biden and the Democrats controlling Congress are advancing an ambitious progressive agenda at the national level, almost all of the red states are responding with what amounts to a collective cry of defiance. On a lengthening list of issues, the rules that govern daily life in red and blue states are diverging—and at an accelerating pace.

When the divergence becomes great enough, we will learn whether "federalism" can continue to accommodate states with diametrically opposed policies. Brownstein thinks it might not. What happens then, perhaps something like Brexit?

Before that happens, expect additional demographic "sorting" as conservatives move to red states and progressives move to blue states. This "voting with one's feet" was once relatively rare and has become common.