Wednesday, December 8, 2021

Cheney's Primary Challenge

The Washington Examiner reports the results of a SoCo Strategies poll trying to gauge the impact of a Trump endorsement on elections. It looked at the primary race in Wyoming between incumbent Congresswoman Liz Cheney and the Trump-endorsed primary challenger Harriet Hageman.

The new survey of Republican voters found that Hageman, a GOP activist and Cheyenne land and water rights attorney, leads Cheney, 38%-18%. State Representative Anthony Bouchard is at 12% and 26% are undecided.

If my back-of-the-envelope arithmetic is correct, today at least half of Republicans would vote for someone else. If we assume half the "undecideds" vote for Cheney, she loses. 

Cheney may try to get WY Democrats to cross-register and vote for her, as a way to vote "No" on Trump. I am unsure how that would pan out, probably few would bother.