Michael Barone has been a student of American electoral politics for most of my adult life and, I expect, for most of his as well. Writing for the Washington Examiner, he shares some interesting statistics, links in the original.
The census estimates confirm reports of people fleeing crowded central cities starting at just about the time of the April 1 census. That’s apparent in the states with the nation’s four largest metropolitan areas: New York’s population declined 365,000 (-1.8%), California’s was down 300,000 (-0.8%) and Illinois’s down 141,000 (-1.1%).
Altogether, 20 states lost population, from high-education Massachusetts (-0.6%) to climate-ideal Hawaii (-0.9%). Both were high-lockdown locales.
At the other end of that spectrum, percentage growth was highest in the Rocky Mountain West: Idaho (+3.4%), Utah (+2.2%), Montana (+1.8%), and Arizona (+1.7%). And in Texas (+1.3%). That’s a big deal, because it’s the second-largest state, with a population over 29 million. Its 2020-21 population increase was 382,000, accounting for 86% of the national increase.
The 25 states that voted for former President Donald Trump increased their populations by 1,049,000, while the 25 states plus D.C. that voted for President Joe Biden saw their populations fall by 607,000. If you set aside the eight marginal states, which no candidate carried by 5% or more, you find the solid Trump states gaining 694,000 people, the marginal states gaining 544,000, and the solid Biden states losing 796,000.
The nine states with no state income tax ... gained 782,000 people, while the other 41 states plus D.C. lost 340,000.
Barone paints an interesting picture, one we must for now consider a rough draft of what our future will resemble. He extracts the above data from Census Bureau estimates.
