Wednesday, June 15, 2016

Exit Poll Problems

Long-time political analyst Michael Barone writes for RealClearPolitics about problems with exit polling data, which as he says have been questioned. Two other sources show smaller proportions of minority and young voters than were found by exit polls.

It turns out white non-college grads - a Trump-leaning group - have been underreported by the exit polls. In addition to the problems Barone finds, I have another issue with exit polls he doesn't reference.

Exit polling must, perforce, totally miss people who vote by mail, by absentee ballot. I've seen statistics which show this group is growing exponentially and there is reason to believe it is not an absolute cross-section of the electorate but rather skews toward the more affluent, the more organized, and the more white.

The DrsC haven't been in a general election polling booth in years, maybe a decade. We always get absentee ballots and mail them in a couple of weeks before the election. We, and others like us, could never be counted in an exit poll. We do, however, vote with great regularity.