Obama Won't Win the South

See this New York Times article by Thomas F. Schaller, a political scientist who argues persuasively that it is highly unlikely that Obama or any other Democrat presidential candidate is going to win in most southern states. Schaller's grasp of the nittygritty of voter turnout in these states is impressive. The possible exceptions, he believes, are Virginia and Florida. He concludes:

In the rest of the South, Mr. Obama cannot overcome reality. Even if unprecedented numbers of black voters turn out to vote for him, the white vote will serve as a formidable counterbalance.