Barack Obama refuses to admit that the surge in Iraq worked. However, what he proposes for Afghanistan is, quite simply, a surge. That is, he proposes to send more troops there. If in one insurgency "more troops" cannot be said to have worked, why would Obama propose the same medicine for another insurgency? Obvious answer: because he knows it worked but is afraid to admit being wrong.
Suppose you went to the doctor for a sore throat and told him that the last time you'd had a sore throat you'd been given penicillin which you believe worked. To which he replies, "I don't give it much credit for you getting well." Now suppose that in the next breath he prescribed penicillin for your current sore throat, saying "That will fix you up." You would go shopping for a new doctor, thinking the old one is an idiot.
You could be excused for thinking Obama is idiot, although he is not. He knows the surge worked, but is afraid to admit it for fear of looking foolish.