Monday, July 21, 2008

A Pattern Emerges

For most people, political memories are short. Do you remember 5 years ago when Howard Dean was for several months the heartthrob of the Democratic Party? How he represented the anti-war "new politics" and wasn't beholden to the old establishment?

The Obama phenomenon is very similar in tone and aspiration. The difference this time around is that, unlike Dean, Obama didn't engage in a "scream." Instead, Obama kept his cool and won the nomination process.

While it has definitely taken longer this season, it appears that the Democratic electorate is losing its enchantment just as it did four years ago. Dean couldn't keep the magic going long enough to win the nomination. Similarly, Obama may not be able to keep the 'romance' going long enough to win in November.

As we noted two days ago in our post "Millennials Losing Motivation," voting enthusiasm among those under age 30 has dropped dramatically since March. It is hard for this group to stay enthused about anything for very long, their attention spans are notoriously short.

If the Democratic Party wants to start winning presidential elections, they need to develop a new selection paradigm that produces candidates appealing to a broad spectrum of the American electorate, not merely those looking for the emotional and political equivalent of a summer romance.