Tuesday, August 19, 2008

2008 Like Eisenhower-Stevenson.

There have been a number of columns this year trying to say that this presidential cycle is like the Kennedy-Nixon contest or the Reagan-Carter battle. None of these has quite worked for me, so after some cogitation, here is my analogy. The Obama-McCain contest is like the Stevenson-Eisenhower contest.

Stevenson was an intellectual, very witty and well spoken. Eisenhower was a fine-looking man but not a great public speaker. Both were bald. Adlai Stevenson appealed to the same educated white audience that Obama appeals to; although obviously he did not have the same draw among African-Americans. Stevenson's dry wit was legendary:
A supporter told him that he was sure to "get the vote of every thinking man" in the U.S., to which Stevenson is said to have replied, "Thank you, but I need a majority to win."
On the other hand, Eisenhower was associated in people's minds with military success, as is McCain. Eisenhower beat Stevenson twice, handily. Stevenson never came close to that needed majority. We'll see whether my preferred model predicts November's outcome.