Caspar Weinberger, Jr. writes in Human Events that Hillary or even Al Gore might end up with the Democratic nomination. He argues that Obama looks weak (true) and a shift of 40 superdelegates would do the job (also true).
Weinberger avoids dealing with the key issue, which is the crucial importance of African-American votes to any Democratic nominee. Suppose the convention decided to throw Obama under the bus, as a probable loser. It is likely that many African-American voters would stay home in protest, thus dooming whoever the convention nominated in Obama's place.
Many of the delegates to the Democratic Convention may well have concluded that Barack Obama is a loser. They have, at this point, the following ugly choice to make: lose with Obama or lose with another candidate. Since Obama has the most delegates, there is no reason for them to make the switch to another losing candidate and alienate a key constituency. Thus Weinberger is wrong, Obama will get the nomination.
