We're all aware of the violent sinking of a small South Korean warship near the disputed watery border with North Korea. I read one article which makes a very interesting point, namely that South Korea cannot afford to conclude that North Korea was responsible.
If the North was responsible for the sinking, the South would have to retaliate or look weak. In fact, they probably already look weak just for waffling about the possible causes. To go back to war over the sinking of the Cheonan and death of 46 of its sailors would carry a price the South is unwilling to pay, hence the need to find another 'cause' for its sinking.
For those of you whose geographic knowledge is shaky, let me remind you of the tactical situation in Korea. Roughly half of the South Korean population lives in Greater Seoul, within artillery range of North Korea. North Korea has stationed large numbers of artillery tubes in hardened sites just across the border aimed at the South's capital and half its people, making them hostages of a sort.
