Instead of becoming a tool to control Ukraine, the Donbas region is becoming another "frozen conflict," a Russian-controlled enclave, similar to Transnistria. Under economic stress because of the fall of oil prices and Western sanctions, and without substantial support from other important players (such as China), the Kremlin seems to be ready to give up on the goal of reintegrating Ukraine, at least for the moment.The longer the Kiev government can string out the "frozen" aspect of the conflict, the more time they buy to root out corruption and integrate volunteer units into the regular army. They also need time to build ties with Europe and with a post-Obama U.S., which is likely to be less diffident.
Speck believes Putin has moved into Syria because he wasn't having much luck in Ukraine. The muscularity of the Russian commitment to Assad makes the U.S. intervention there look weak, probably its intent.
