Wednesday, October 13, 2021

Stagflation Alert

The Washington Examiner reports relatively poor U.S. economic news.

Consumer prices rose 5.4% for the year ending September, according to a report by the Department of Labor released Wednesday, the highest pace of inflation since 2008.

[According to] Greg McBride, Bankrate senior analyst. "Food and shelter increases together contributed more than half of the seasonally adjusted increase in the CPI. With home prices soaring and rents surging, this may just be the tip of the iceberg."

The most recent jobs report was a major letdown. The economy added just 194,000 new jobs in September as the delta variant curbed business — far short of consensus forecasts of 473,000 new jobs. The unemployment rate is now at 4.8%, well above what it was prior to the health crisis.

Another inflationary data point is the following from the Daily Mail (U.K.):

Millions of retirees will see a significant boost to their Social Security checks next year after the Biden administration gave its cost of living adjustment (COLA) the most significant boost in nearly 40 years to keep up with rising inflation.

The Social Security Administration has not raised benefits so drastically year-over-year since 1982.

This combination of stagnant employment news with inflation increasing rapidly is what is termed "stagflation." It is very ugly stuff because what is usually done to curb inflation makes unemployment worse, while what is done to curb unemployment makes inflation worse.