Power Line's Paul Mirengoff both quotes at some length from a David Leonhardt New York Times column, and expands on its basic point that we really don't have a thorough understanding of the Covid-19 virus and how it spreads. I believe I've made the same point here on occasion.
People beat up on the federal authorities for their changing recommendations. I understand the public frustration but realistically no one has been through a flare up of this particular disease before.
We demand answers from the feds and because they are supposed to know, they make their best guess. They base it on how prior viral diseases have spread and sickened. Covid has had some tricks up its sleeve, things it does differently than earlier viral outbreaks.
Unlike the academics the federal "experts" probably were before entering government, the feds don't hedge their recommendations around with qualifiers. They leave out "the maybes, the we thinks and the more research is needed" because the public doesn't want to hear "this is what we think, but we may be wrong, consider it our best guess."
The public wants answers. An epidemiologist's best guess isn't bad advice, but it is a guess. More data comes in, the advice changes and we get frustrated.
We need to remember this mantra: a new disease = uncertain outcomes and treatment protocols. Mistakes will happen, minds will change, and hindsight will show missed opportunities. It is nobody's fault, but some may be scapegoated.
