Forbes reports poll findings that are a wow:
Just 29% of Americans want President Joe Biden to run for re-election while 39% want former President Donald Trump to run in 2024, according to a poll released Friday by Harvard University’s Center for American Political Studies and Harris Insight and Analytics.
Meanwhile, a recent Emerson College poll finds:
The national survey shows Trump leading Biden 44 percent to 39 percent in a head-to-head match-up, while another 12 percent of voters say they plan to vote for someone else.
For purposes of discussion, let's presume both are more-or-less accurate reflections of the national mood. What should we conclude?
- Both Biden and Trump are popular with less than half the electorate.
- Both are at an age Brits sarcastically call "waiting for God."
- Biden is less popular than Trump, but their match-up - should it occur - will be a contest between two individuals neither of whom is popular with anything like a majority of the voters.
- Understanding these numbers, both parties should nominate individuals with less baggage and a more positive image with voters.
In spite of the above, for different reasons neither party is likely to nominate someone other than those two gentlemen. The Democrats' logical second choice - Harris - is less popular than Biden. CA Gov. Gavin Newsom might be a possible, but imagine the optics of Democrats refusing to nominate a woman of color.
If Trump wants the nomination and doesn't get it, he will likely do his level best to torpedo the candidacy of whoever is nominated. The only way the GOP gets to nominate likely alternative FL Gov. DeSantis is if Trump chooses not to run. This I'll believe when I hear him say it in public, on the record, followed by an endorsement of DeSantis. Don't hold your breath awaiting this event.
My tentative conclusion: With the caveat that 2 years is an eternity in politics and barring a heavenly intervention, we will see a match-up of Trump and Biden in 2024.
It certainly won't be the first time realistic people will choose to vote for the least bad candidate. I've rather made a habit of doing so.
