In no particular order as they occur to me, my thoughts about the election yesterday.
Gov. Ron DeSantis looks like a winner, and his Florida like a model. The “red wave” began and unfortunately ended in Florida.
What strengthens DeSantis, weakens Donald Trump, while the endorsements of both had very uneven impacts at best.
Californians who moved to Texas left California politics behind, probably a key motive in their move. TX is, if anything, more “red” than formerly, CA more “blue” and more “screwed.” Ditto those who moved to FL from the Northeast.
I hope we’ve seen the last of Beto O’Rourke, Charlie Crist, and Stacy Abrams, all lost again decisively, and quixotically.
Both parties ran weird candidates in the PA and GA senate races. They were races where you almost wished both parties could lose.
Kari Lake’s supposed ninja-like skills were overrated in AZ, ditto for Tudor Dixon in MI. Drazan in weird OR was always going to be a long shot.
I believe game theory is the best explanation for how evenly balanced the two parties are. More and more energy is put into gaining that 50% + 1 edge, crucial in the zero-sum game that our de facto two party system produces.
Maybe the most striking thing about the night was how few seats changed parties, most places seem locked in for one party or the other. My mental image is two elk stags with their antlers so tangled that they struggle and die locked together, though I hope that isn’t prophesy.
It appears the best outcome the GOP can hope for is a deadlocked, do-nothing Congress. Compared to the last two years of D domination, it is a real improvement.
Maybe gridlock was also the best we could hope for while a D sits in the White House? We were never going to have a veto-proof majority in the Senate.
The polls were no more accurate than formerly, but they were inaccurate in the opposite direction! If this means an overcorrection was in place, fine. If it means something else, we may have to rethink the entire enterprise.
The pundit class won't like rethinking polling. We've relied on polls to give us an augury of future election results - basically something to write about.
We tend to believe ticket splitting doesn't happen much. This election proved that tendency wrong. We saw significant ticket splitting in PA where the D won the governorship easily and the senate race was very close.
Something similar happened in reverse in AZ where the governor race is close and the senate race not so much. Conclusion: candidate quality does truly matter after all.
Later ... A gradual consensus seems to be emerging, and it isn't good news for Donald Trump. People voted D when most indicators seemed to suggest they'd vote R; the last time this happened people were bummed about Richard Nixon.
This time? Maybe it is Trump? We need some precinct-level analysis to suss out the relative impacts of abortion, Trump, and fight-to-the-death party loyalty on the disappointing outcome we got.
